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Bracketology: Projected field and Wisconsin’s struggles have them falling

By Lukas Harkins

Mar 2, 2017; Madison, WI, USA; The Wisconsin Badgers team waits as officials determine a call that finalized a flagrant one foul against Iowa Hawkeyes guard Peter Jok (14) at the Kohl Center. Iowa defeated Wisconsin 69-67. Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 2, 2017; Madison, WI, USA; The Wisconsin Badgers team waits as officials determine a call that finalized a flagrant one foul against Iowa Hawkeyes guard Peter Jok (14) at the Kohl Center. Iowa defeated Wisconsin 69-67. Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mid-major conference tournaments are underway, but this weekend can dictate a lot of the future in Bracketology for major conference teams.

It has not been a good stretch of basketball for the Wisconsin Badgers. Once the darlings in a down year of the Big Ten, the team has dropped five of their six games, all coming against unranked opponents. The last of these games, which came against Iowa on Thursday night, was another performance that emphasized Wisconsin’s inability to score.

The Badgers have not scored 80+ points in a game since January 24th and have had three games under 50. Their opponents have started to double both Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes on the inside, and the outside shooters have not been able to connect. Because of their play, the Badgers have fallen to an eight seed in the projected bracket, their lowest spot of the entire season. With an RPI of 43 and an SOS of 80 (3-6 vs. top-50), the Badgers are in trouble of slipping to a double-digit seed in just over a week from now.

Entering the weekend, let’s see what to look for in terms of Bracketology:

For Friday:

  • Conference tournaments games will be active for the Horizon League, MVC, Southern, CAA, Big South, and the West Coast.
  • Iowa State and West Virginia battle each other in a game that will only dictate seeding, as both teams are locks for the tournament.

For Saturday:

  • Conference tournament games will be active for the Northeast, CAA, Southern, West Coast, Summit, and MAAC.
  • Illinois travels to play Rutgers on the road, and they cannot afford a loss there.
  • Still hanging on the bubble, Providence needs to get out of St. John’s with a win.
  • Like Providence, Kansas State cannot afford a loss against Texas Tech.
  • Georgia at Arkansas is a huge battle of bubble teams in the SEC. The Bulldogs needs it more than the Razorbacks.
  • Louisville is just 6-7 against the top-50, and have fallen to a three seed. Notre Dame looks to keep them there.
  • California needs to defeat Colorado on the road to get back in the projected field.
  • Xavier is falling hard and has found themselves on the bubble. A road loss against DePaul might drop them further down towards the cutline.
  • If Marquette manages to win their home game with Creighton, they will likely be a lock for the Big Dance.
  • Vanderbilt has a huge opportunity on their home floor against Florida to find a comfortable spot in the field.
  • Georgia Tech and Syracuse square off in a much-needed game for both teams.
  • Wake Forest, coming off their victory over Louisville, is looking to build on that against Virginia Tech.
  • Firmly on the bubble, Rhode Island needs to beat Davidson.
  • USC is dropping down seed lines about as fast as it gets, and they need to handle Washington at home.
  • In another edition of the famed rivalry, North Carolina gets home-court advantage against Duke on ESPN.

For Sunday:

  • The Horizon League and the Summit League are the only tournaments in action on Sunday.
  • Connecticut is having a rough season, but that doesn’t mean they can’t play spoiler against Cincinnati, who is seeking a high seed.
  • Houston remains on the bubble and cannot afford a bad loss, which East Carolina would count as.
  • Purdue at Northwestern is a game that could dictate a lot of different things for the seeding in the Big Ten.

And now, here comes the projected bracket heading into Friday night.

Projected Bracket (Updated through Thursday, March 2nd)

1 Villanova
16 UC Irvine/Mount St. Mary’s

8 Virginia Tech
9 Michigan

4 Virginia
13 Vermont

5 Purdue
12 Texas-Arlington

6 Iowa State
11 Xavier

3 Arizona
14 Akron

7 South Carolina
10 Seton Hall

2 Kentucky
15 Florida Gulf Coast

Kansas 1
NC Central/Texas Southern 16

VCU 8
Northwestern 9

Florida State 4
Princeton13

Cincinnati 5
NC-Wilmington 12

St. Mary’s 6
Providence 11

Louisville 3
Bucknell 14

Dayton 7
Middle Tennessee 10

Butler 2
 Winthrop 15

1 Gonzaga
16 North Dakota

8 Wisconsin
9 Wichita State

4 Duke
13 Valparaiso

5 Minnesota
12 Syracuse/Rhode Island

6 SMU
11 Illinois State

3 Florida
14 East Tennessee State

7 Oklahoma State
10 Arkansas

2 Oregon
15 South Dakota

North Carolina 1
New Orleans 16

Miami 8
Michigan State 9

West Virginia 4
Monmouth 13

Notre Dame 5
Nevada 12

Creighton 6
USC/Wake Forest 11

 UCLA 3
Belmont 14

Maryland 7
Marquette10

Baylor 2
CSU Bakersfield 15

Bubble Preview

Next Four In

Seton Hall

Xavier

Illinois State

Providence

Last Four In

USC

Wake Forest

Rhode Island

Syracuse

First Four Out

Vanderbilt

California

Illinois

Kansas State

Next Four Out

Houston

TCU

Georgia

Iowa

Bids by Conference Breakdown

ACC: 10     Big 12: 5      Big Ten: 7

Big East: 7     Pac-12: 4     SEC: 4

WCC: 2      AAC: 2     A-10: 3     MVC: 2

Next: Player of the Year rankings

And that is how the projected bracket looks headed into the weekend. If you have any questions or comments, tweet at @hardwiredsports (that’s me!) and look for another update coming on Monday.

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