Busting Brackets Preseason Top 25 Poll, A Gauge of Where Teams Stand NOW
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They have the potential to be a top-five team down the road, but the Wolverines are not there yet. UM must replace its two senior captains (Zack Novak and Stu Douglass) and three of its top-four 3-point shooters (Novak, Douglass and Maryland transfer Evan Smotrycz). A Trey Burke-Tim Hardaway backcourt is a great foundation. A Burke-Hardaway-Jordan Morgan trio is even better. But unless Mitch McGary returns to the “can’t miss” prospect he was before tumbling down recruiting rankings, it’s unlikely the Maize and Blue live up to the preseason hype. |
12
Baylor
Kentucky, North Carolina and Syracuse lost more in the way of collective talent, but no program withstood more attrition in the frontcourt alone. The Bears lost their top-four frontcourt players from last year’s team, including three starters to the NBA draft. No better way to compensate for the loss than by adding the most college-ready freshman center in the land and turning to an experienced, talent-laden backcourt. Brady Heslip is the best shooter in America. Pierre Jackson is the Big 12’s best overall player.
13
Florida
Don’t let Bradley Beal’s draft stock inflate his value to last year’s Gators squad. UF will be better than you think without him. Billy Donovan welcomes back the SEC’s top-returning guard in Kenny Boynton, who was a better offensive weapon than Beal last season. Walker’s chucking ways are no longer an issue and Patrick Young is likely to see more touches as a result. Great tradeoff. Don’t sleep on Erik Murphy either. He’s one of the most underrated forwards in the sport.
14
San Diego State
The MWC Player of the Year is back, and his partners in crime are too. Reigning league POY Jamaal Franklin reunites with Chase Tapley, Xavier Thames and James Rahon to form the most prolific mid-major backcourt in college hoops. The foursome combined for 52.2 points per game last season, the most of any starting backcourt west of Missouri. We know the guards will produce and the defense should be stout as always. Will the frontcourt pull its oar though?
15
Missouri
In all, Missouri must replace the winningest senior class in school history, which accounted for 58.2 points per game (discounting walk-ons). Among those moving on: Mizzou’s top three scorers, including the program’s record co-holders for games played (141), shared by Marcus Denmon and Kim English. Depth on this year’s team is nonexistent, defense is again an issue and Missouri lacks the sheer volume of versatile scorers it had last season. But with UConn transfer Alex Oriakhi on board, Laurence Bowers returning from injury and Phil Pressey running the show, Frank Haith should have more balance on his roster this year.
16
UCLA
If Shabazz Muhammad’s eligibility was not in question, UCLA would rank much higher. Now make sense of this: Kentucky and UCLA each owns a top-two freshman class, and UCLA returns more proven college talent (the Wear twins, Josh Smith and Tyler Lamb), yet UK is ranked significantly higher in preseason polls that even assume Bazz’s eligibility. That must be a statement on both coaches, not rosters.
17
Notre Dame
The biggest breakthrough team short of Murray State last season returns the nucleus of a squad that unexpectedly won 22 games and dealt Syracuse its only regular season loss. Despite losing four of its top five players from the year before, including former Big East POY Ben Hansbrough, the Fighting Irish got a breakout season from a video game junkie (Jack Cooley) and unheralded frosh (Jerian Grant). What does Mike Brey, fresh off a lengthy and deserved contract extension, have for an encore?
18
Gonzaga
It seems Elias Harris has been playing college basketball since the pre-shot clock era, yet here he is, returning for another run in Spokane. This year, the versatile, German-born forward has reliable leadership around him, but not from fellow upperclassmen as you might expect. The Fightin’ Fews will turn to rising sophomore stars Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr., the backcourt duo which burst onto the scene as freshmen, to lead the charge. Providence transfer Gerard Coleman is still a year away, but already the Bulldogs will tease one of the premiere backcourts in college hoops. This team can shoot from the perimeter as well as anybody, but will Sam Dower be an adequate replacement for Robert Sacre inside?
19
Creighton
Returning four of five starters from a 29-win team is a recipe for instant credibility. Returning the best offensive player in college basketball is a recipe for something much greater—as in a legitimate shot at a Final Four. Creighton is abuzz with hype this season, welcoming back first-team All American Doug McDermott and MVC standout pivot Greg Echenique. Question is: will the Blue Jays, McDermott included, play any defense this year? Will they limit the turnovers that bit them invariably in conference play? We know this team can score at an extremely high level, even without Antoine Young (lucky for Creighton, Grant Gibbs is a worthy replacement at point). Can the defense hold its end of the bargain?
20
North Carolina
No team not from Kentucky lost more in the way of talent than UNC, which sent four starters and eventual top-20 draft picks to the NBA. The returning talent in Chapel Hill is strong as usual, with sophomore stud James Michael-McAdoo, a strong crop of wing players and talented freshman class in the fold. Problem is, Carolina’s talent is overly concentrated in the wrong places. Can Roy Williams win with a roster built around the most dispensable piece in his system: the shooting guard? Need to see proof first.
21
Memphis
Talent is again not the issue in Memphis. Player development and team chemistry—which falls under the umbrella of coaching—is. How do you atone for the losses of Will Barton and Wesley Witherspoon? By returning the rest of your roster, chock full of top-end talent, of course. Joe Jackson, Tarik Black and Chris Crawford are all studs, but Adonis Thomas will be the straw that stirs the drink.
22
Arizona
If Arizona knew last year what it knows now about its dire point guard situation, Sean Miller would have spent more time pursuing a point guard for this year’s freshman class rather than concentrating on top-flight bigs. The Wildats lost Josiah Turner, the talented but troubled crown of last year’s prized recruiting class, to the NBA just weeks after bidding farewell to senior leader Kyle Fogg and valuable forward Jesse Perry. Nick Johnson is the closest simulation of a point guard on the roster, and he’s a combo guard at heart, not a true point. For the Cats to win a wide-open Pac-12, Johnson, Solomon Hill, and this star-studded freshman class will have to be extra special.
23
Cincinnati
Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright are ready to shine [again], and JaQuon Parker is on the verge of a breakout senior season. Even after losing Dion Dixon to graduation, the Bearcats own the top returning backcourt in the Big East. But while the team can replace Dixon without skipping a beat, who on the roster can replicate Yancy Gates’ production?
24
VCU
Losing Bradford Burgess is challenging enough, so when VCU got word from the NCAA in October that his brother Jordan was a partial qualifier (meaning ineligible this season), Shaka Smart’s season got that much tougher. No sweat though. With recruiting at an all-time high in Richmond, the Rams are primed to move on without either Burgess. Melvin Johnson, a former commit of the next team in our preseason poll, is the best freshman talent entering the A-10. The team defense is a game-changer, the half-court offense should be more balanced without the elder Burgess and Smart is ready again to Shaka the world in March.
25
Miami
The Canes are the most overlooked sleeping giant in college basketball. Miami welcomes back the most dynamic frontcourt tandem in the ACC—Kenny Kadji and Reggie Johnson—on top of a deep and talented backcourt that will wreak havoc on teams with slower guards. Durand Scott is a star, Shane Larkin is a rising star, Trey McKinney Jones is the best sixth man in the ACC (assuming Rion Brown starts) and Kadji is the best kept secret in America. This could be the best team in the state of Florida by year’s end.