MVC Basketball: Conference tournament preview and predictions

By Doug Winkey | Mar 1, 2016

Mar 8, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Northern Iowa Panthers head coach Ben Jacobson reacts in the game between the Illinois State Redbirds and the Northern Iowa Panthers during second half in the championship game of the Missouri Valley Conference basketball tournament at Scotttrade Center. Northern Iowa Panthers won 60-69. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /

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Feb 22, 2015; Wichita, KS, USA; Evansville Purple Aces center Egidijus Mockevicius (55) tries to move against Wichita State Shockers forward Darius Carter (12) during the Purple Aces /

1: Evansville Aces

Evansville is my pick to win this year’s MVC tournament for the first time in school history. They finished second in conference play at 12-6.

The Aces won four of their last five, but dropped their home final to UNI to get swept in the season series. Evansville will open play against the winner of Missouri State-Drake. The Aces should win that game and defeat the winner of ISU-ISU to take on UNI in the championship.

Evansville finished the regular season at 89th in KenPom, 131st in AdjO, 65th in AdjD, and 92nd in RPI. Balentine and Mockevicius are the two leading scorers, with Jaylon Brown in double figures at 10.5 per game. The team only plays six guys, but manage to shoot an efficient 50% as a team and rebound well with so few bodies.

I like Evansville over UNI here because none of the Panthers will be able to stop Mockevicius. He’s the best big man in the entire tournament without question. He also averaged 14 points and 14.5 rebounds in the two previous matchups. He’ll need help from Balentine, Adam Wing, and Mislav Brzoja from the arc to prevent UNI from clogging the paint too heavily.

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If the three sharpshooters can keep UNI honest, the inside outside game Evansville possesses means that they should hoist their first Missouri Valley trophy in a potential barn burner.