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MVC Basketball: Conference tournament preview and predictions

By Doug Winkey

Mar 8, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Northern Iowa Panthers head coach Ben Jacobson reacts in the game between the Illinois State Redbirds and the Northern Iowa Panthers during second half in the championship game of the Missouri Valley Conference basketball tournament at Scotttrade Center. Northern Iowa Panthers won 60-69. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 8, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Northern Iowa Panthers head coach Ben Jacobson reacts in the game between the Illinois State Redbirds and the Northern Iowa Panthers during second half in the championship game of the Missouri Valley Conference basketball tournament at Scotttrade Center. Northern Iowa Panthers won 60-69. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dec 14, 2014; Rosemont, IL, USA; Illinois State Redbirds forward Deontae Hawkins (23) saves the ball from going out of bounds against the DePaul Blue Demons during the first half at Allstate Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 14, 2014; Rosemont, IL, USA; Illinois State Redbirds forward Deontae Hawkins (23) saves the ball from going out of bounds against the DePaul Blue Demons during the first half at Allstate Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports /

6: Illinois State Redbirds

Illinois State will be the big letdown for this year’s tournament. The Redbirds finished third in the regular season at 12-6 after losing their finale against Wichita St. They will square off against the Indiana State Sycamores on the tournament’s second day.

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The team sits 114th in KenPom, 168th in AdjO, 73rd in AdjD, and 109th in RPI. ISU has four players in double figures, led by DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell‘s 14.1 per contest. Overall, the team doesn’t shoot well from the floor, but they are exceedingly deep (9 players averaging 16+ minutes) and play fine defense.

I’m picking the Redbirds for my opening round upset because these games are on a neutral court. Something crazy typically happens in intense tournaments and Illinois State losing to start is the likeliest thing happening that I can see.

This squad can win if they can keep the Sycamores from dictating a higher tempo and shoot better than 34% as a team.

Next: 5: Southern Illinois Salukis