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Baylor Basketball: Al Freeman’s roller coaster season

By Matt Ostrowski

Feb 4, 2017; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears guard Al Freeman (25) goes up for a shot against the Kansas State Wildcats at the Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 4, 2017; Waco, TX, USA; Baylor Bears guard Al Freeman (25) goes up for a shot against the Kansas State Wildcats at the Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports /
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How can Baylor basketball’s Al Freeman turn his struggles around before it’s too late?

After a season in which he was the Baylor Bears’ second-leading scorer, expectations were high for junior guard Al Freeman this year.

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And to start the season, those expectations were being met. He tipped off the season with a 16-point outing against Oral Roberts, and through non-conference play, Freeman was averaging 12.7 points per game on 52 percent from the field and 47 percent from beyond the arc.

That might not seem like a major step-up from last season’s numbers (11.3 points per game), but considering the efficiency, and the fact that Scott Drew finally starting treating Johnathan Motley like the Player of the Year candidate he is, Freeman was the perfect second or third option for the Bears this year.

Now, nobody really knows what the deal is with Freeman. His numbers have taken an absolute nosedive in conference play: six points per game on 28 percent from the floor and 22 percent from three. Not to mention he hasn’t even played in Baylor’s past three games due to a suspension. Drew has not announced what the suspension is for, nor has he announced when Freeman will return from it.

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In Freeman’s last three games before the suspension, he scored 0 points against Ole Miss in just 12 minutes, six points against Kansas, and three points against Kansas State in 17 minutes.

The first thing that jumps off the page when looking at Freeman’s game-logs is his shot selection. In the last five games before his suspension, he attempted 18 threes, making just two of them. He only attempted nine shots inside the arc, making four of them.

That means that 66 percent of his shots during that stretch came from three. During non-conference play, when he was playing extremely well, only a little bit over 50 percent of his shot attempts came from three.

Earlier this season, Baylor squared off against VCU at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. The Bears won 71-63, and Freeman had one of his better games of the year: 15 points on 6-of-11 from the floor, including 5-of-8 from two-point territory.

Notice the bad close-out by VCU’s Jordan Burgess in this video. He comes out way too far and is in no position to guard anything other than a possible three-point attempt from Freeman. So Freeman gives Burgess a pump-fake, and drives right by him for the layup:

Now we fast-forward to his past few games. On a similar play against Kansas, Josh Jackson also had a poor close-out on Freeman at the three-point line, coming in flat-footed. But this time, Freeman took the three, despite being one for his last 13 from downtown at the time:

Interestingly enough, Freeman had a similar, but not quite as substantial drop in his shooting numbers last year. After shooting almost 45 percent from deep through the non-conference season, he dipped to 33 percent during conference play.

That could easily be attributed to an increase in the skill of Baylor’s opponents. Though while his percentages dipped last season, his shot selection adapted. 37 percent of his shots in conference play last season were three-pointers while he was struggling shooting the ball. In non-conference play, when he was shooting the three ball well, he had an even 50/50 split between three-pointers and two-pointers.

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This change in shot-selection showed in Freeman’s stats. He still managed to score over 10 points per game during the conference season, a respectable number

I asked Freeman about this distinction at Big 12 Media Day last October, about whether he views himself as more of a shooter or a slasher:

“I just see myself as somebody who can do both,” he said. “If you back off me I can knock it down, if you play too tight I can go by you. So I don’t really title myself as anything.”

That seemed to ring true for last season. He started off the season hot, and as he cooled off and defenses adapted to that, he started getting to the rim a bit more.

This season, though, now that he’s struggling, a wide majority of his shot attempts have become three-pointers. And clearly, as evidenced by his shooting numbers in conference play, that’s not going too well.

Again, Freeman is suspended, and nobody knows if and when he will be back. King McLure is averaging 9.3 points per game on 40 percent from downtown in Freeman’s absence.

So we don’t even know how much Freeman will be playing if he does indeed come back. Baylor still has high postseason aspirations. They were named one of the four one-seeds in the committee’s early peek at their seeding. 

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Still, they’ve lost three of their last five games, and Kansas comes to town on Saturday. They’re struggling now, and are in real danger of dropping another game this weekend. Al Freeman just might be the one that can save them if he can be a little bit more aggressive going to the rim.

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