Busting Brackets
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NCAA Bracket: Five takeaways from the Selection Show

By Lukas Harkins

Mar 23, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; A view of March Madness logos on towels and the bench during practice the day before the semifinals of the South regional of the NCAA Tournament at KFC YUM!. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 23, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; A view of March Madness logos on towels and the bench during practice the day before the semifinals of the South regional of the NCAA Tournament at KFC YUM!. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mar 5, 2017; St. Louis, MO, USA; Wichita State Shockers guard Landry Shamet (11) celebrates with guard C.J. Keyser (3) after defeating the Illinois State Redbirds during the Championship game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at Scottrade Center. Wichita State won 71-51. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 5, 2017; St. Louis, MO, USA; Wichita State Shockers guard Landry Shamet (11) celebrates with guard C.J. Keyser (3) after defeating the Illinois State Redbirds during the Championship game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at Scottrade Center. Wichita State won 71-51. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

The mid-major struggle continues

First of all, the bracket is absent of Illinois State. Yes, the Redbirds were only 2-4 against the RPI top-100, but the team did go 27-6. It is tough for them to not see them playing in the Big Dance, but it is not a huge surprise. In my final bracketology update submitted to the Bracket Matrix, I ended up moving Illinois State to my first team out because the committee’s history.

This was a good decision because they did not make the field, but they were not the only mid-major to be hurt by their conference affiliation. For starters, let’s look at their MVC counterpart Wichita State. The average seed on the Bracket Matrix was 8.31 on the Shockers entering the day, yet they landed an eight seed.

Now, nobody is really going to argue that Wichita State had an outstanding resume. With a 3-4 record against the top-100 (two of those wins coming against the aforementioned Illinois State), Wichita State did not have a great strength of schedule. Their RPI, which was 31, in addition to a ridiculous record of 31-4 were what pushed them into the tournament field, but their Kenpom numbers are what make the decision to make them a double-digit seed a head-scratcher.

Ranking eighth in the entire country on Kenpom, it will be very interesting to see if the Shockers can live up to that number as a ten seed in the bracket. Obviously, Wichita State had to be one of the most difficult resumes to rank for the committee, and they might make Kentucky nervous in a potential second round match-up.

Lastly, both Middle Tennessee (12 seed) and Rhode Island (11 seed) likely would not have made the NCAA Tournament without win their conference tournaments. As both of these teams had really good seasons, it is tough to see them in a position where their conference championship games were actually must-wins. Nonetheless, the seeding is over, and it is up to these mid-majors to play great basketball and make a couple runs to the Sweet 16 to maybe change the committee’s mind.

This is, by the way, without mention of the match-ups that these mid-majors received. Dayton and Wichita State have historically been excellent against major conference opponents, but yet they play each other. Along the same lines, St. Mary’s and VCU play each other in the first round. It will be interesting to see what impact the lack of mid-major at-larges vs. major conference at-larges first round match-ups have on the amount of upsets we see.

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