2017 NCAA Tournament: How could historical trends play out this March?

Mar 12, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Rhode Island Rams guard E.C. Matthews (0) dribbles the ball against the Virginia Commonwealth Rams during the first half of the Atlantic 10 Conference Championship game at the PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

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Mar 10, 2017; Brooklyn, NY, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Kennedy Meeks (3) controls the ball against Duke Blue Devils forward Amile Jefferson (21) during the first half of an ACC Conference Tournament game at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

No. 1 Seeds in Final Four

According to ESPN, since the field expanded to include at least 64 teams, either one or two No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four 30 out of 38 years. There are exceptions of course — in 2008, no No. 1 seeds made it. But it is the exception that proves the rule. Which No. 1 seeds are the most susceptible?

I don’t see Kansas coming out of the Midwest bracket. Despite their talent, they have seemed off recently and suffered a bad loss to TCU. There are a number of dangerous teams in their bracket. Louisville, Michigan, or Oregon could knock them off in the Elite Eight, if Purdue, Iowa State (who has beaten them already this year), or even the winner of the Miami / Michigan State game don’t get them first. Kansas is elite, but it will be difficult to reach the Final Four.

Each of the other No. 1 seeds will have a tough time as well. UNC will likely have to face Kentucky, who beat them this winter, or UCLA. Villanova could go home early due to Wisconsin. However, the real test will be in their probable matchup with Duke, who are the ACC tournament champion and preseason No. 1 team, in the Elite Eight. Finally, Gonzaga may only have 1 loss, but they are very unproven against top teams. The Western Conference champion could be challenged by West Virginia, Notre Dame, Arizona, or even the winner of the Northwestern-Vanderbilt contest.

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