Bracketology: Shifting on the top line in the projected field after crazy week
Which teams are right on the bubble?
Safer, but not safe: SMU, Notre Dame, Georgia, St. Bonaventure
Last four in: Houston, UCLA, Baylor, Marquette
First four out: UCF, Utah, Washington, Minnesota
More work to do: USC, Oklahoma State, Alabama, St. John’s
As it always is at this time of the year, the bubble remains enormous. There have been some horrible stretches of play by certain teams but very few major conference teams are completely out of the NCAA Tournament picture at this time of the year. Even in the Pac-12 and Big Ten, which are both weaker than normal this year, at least half of their teams are in play to make a run if something magical starts soon.
Bids by Conference
Atlantic Coast: 8
Southeastern: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 5
American Athletic: 4
Pac-12: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
West Coast: 2
The biggest conference on the bubble this week is the Pac-12. Four teams are residing right on the edge with only one of them are on the right side as of now. There are currently six teams from the conference that are in strong consideration for at-large bids (four on the bubble plus Arizona and Arizona State) and that is somewhat of an improvement from where the conference looked to be a month ago.
The big issue with the conference is that the bottom is so incredibly weak than any loss by one of the top teams to the bottom can be extremely detrimental to that team’s resume.
Another conference that is well-represented on the bubble is the Big East. St. John’s and Marquette moved in opposite directions. While Marquette used a 52-point outburst from Markus Howard to snag a road win over Providence and took a tough loss on the road to Villanova, St. John’s took two brutal losses to Creighton and DePaul. The Red Storm have serious work to do as they are still winless in Big East play.
Arguably the biggest surprise on the bubble this week is that St. Bonaventure remains in the field. The Bonnies had a somewhat atrocious week with losses to Dayton and St. Joe’s but they still find a way into the bracket. How long they stay there will be a major question.
Next: Evaluating 2017 Final Four teams’ odds of a return trip
With another interesting week of hoops approaching, be sure to tune in for the top games and return next week for another edition of Bracketology. Hopefully, your team is in solid shape to go dancing but if they are not, best of luck keeping your bubble from popping.