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NCAA Basketball: 4 teams in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament

DURHAM, NC - JANUARY 29: Rex Pflueger
DURHAM, NC - JANUARY 29: Rex Pflueger /
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TEMPE, AZ – MARCH 4: Head coach Hurley of the Arizona State Sun Devils talks to official Michael Reed during the first half of the college basketball game against the Arizona Wildcats at Wells Fargo Arena on March 4, 2017 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)
TEMPE, AZ – MARCH 4: Head coach Hurley of the Arizona State Sun Devils talks to official Michael Reed during the first half of the college basketball game against the Arizona Wildcats at Wells Fargo Arena on March 4, 2017 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images) /

Arizona State Sun Devils, 16-5 (4-5 Pac-12)

Peaked at No. 3 in AP Poll (Week 8)

Arizona State had a meteoric rise into the top three of the AP Poll after being unranked in the preseason. The Sun Devils were pegged as a bubble team by most people, but their trio of senior guards and their pair of overachieving freshmen led them towards the top of the rankings.

Tra Holder has established himself as one of the contenders for Pac-12 player of the year with his 19.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and 3.9 apg. Shannon Evans and Kodi Justice have added even more fire power to this potent backcourt with their 16.7 ppg and 13.0 ppg, respectively. All three can shoot from three, create for themselves, and can create for others.

The reason why Arizona State’s start surprised so many people was the emergence of Romello White and Remy Martin. White was a top-100 freshman in the class of 2016, but was deemed ineligible. He has given Arizona State a legitimate low-post threat in his redshirt freshman season and is averaging 11.8 ppg. Martin was a more unheralded recruit, but has immediately stepped into a large role. He thrives in their up-tempo offense (29th in pace) and is a stingy on-ball defender.

However, once conference play began, Arizona State turned into the team that many expected in the preseason. The Sun Devils have lost five of their nine Pac-12 games. Four of those games were to teams that are projected to miss the NCAA Tournament and two of those four games were at home. Arizona State inexplicably remains in the AP Poll even with this disastrous slide.

Key non-conference wins against Xavier, Kansas, and Kansas State will give Arizona State a buffer and a huge edge over comparable bubble teams, but their work is far from over. It is imperative that they earn more wins in conference play. These wins will not be that valuable, but they will keep Arizona State from collecting too many damaging losses.

If the Sun Devils are to get back on track, they will need to improve their offense as that is what allowed them to climb the rankings. Arizona State currently has the 9th best offense (per KenPom) with a 119.6 adjusted efficiency, but in Pac-12 games, they have an adjusted efficiency of 107.6, which only ranks sixth in the conference.

All of their key players have much lower offensive ratings in conference play, which shows how the team has regressed to the mean after their hot start. Shannon Evans saw the biggest decrease from 121.5 to 108.3. While not being known as a defensive-minded team, Arizona State’s defensive efficiency has also been worse in conference play (101.8 overall vs 108.2 in league play).

While Mikey Mitchell has generally played well, he has a -9.3 net rating in Pac-12 games, which is the worst among Arizona State rotation players. When they were dominating the early portion of the season, Mitchell was not in the lineup due to transfer restrictions. Perhaps, Arizona State should return to the four-guard lineup that gave them so much early success.

Prediction: Arizona State finishes at 10-8 in the Pac-12 and earns a 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. According to RPI Wizard, this would give them a 41 RPI and a 75 SOS which would put them on the bubble. This should be enough for a tournament bid as they have some great non-conference wins.