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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing Big Dance odds in mid-February

By Lukas Harkins

KANSAS CITY, MO - DECEMBER 06: Jaylen Nowell #5 of the Washington Huskies smiles after drawing a foul during the game against the Kansas Jayhawks at the Sprint Center on December 6, 2017 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO - DECEMBER 06: Jaylen Nowell #5 of the Washington Huskies smiles after drawing a foul during the game against the Kansas Jayhawks at the Sprint Center on December 6, 2017 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /
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HIGHLAND HEIGHTS, KY – DECEMBER 19: Brooks
HIGHLAND HEIGHTS, KY – DECEMBER 19: Brooks /

American Athletic Conference

Key in the lock: Cincinnati

Some perspiration: Wichita State

Add more deodorant: Houston, SMU, Temple (ommitted from text below on accident)

Cincinnati Bearcats: 22-2 (11-0)

RPI: 8    KenPom: 4    BPI: 4    Sagarin: 5

G1: 4-2    G2: 8-0    G3: 2-0    G4: 8-0

Without a doubt, Cincinnati is playing some of the best basketball in the country right now. There are very few teams who are lucky enough to be undefeated in conference play at this point in the season. While their undefeated record might not be as impressive as Virginia’s due to the strength of their respective conferences, the Bearcats’ play should be noticed. The team is currently riding a 15-game winning streak and they are in incredible shape to get a great seed in the NCAA Tournament.

With top teams dropping games like none other as of late, Cincinnati is rising up seed lines. If the Bearcats continue to win games, there will be more discussion surrounding this team being a potential No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. The next three games on Cincinnati’s schedule will give us a better idea of who they really are, though. Road games against SMU and Houston are challenging enough but then they return home only to play host to Wichita State. 2-1 would be a successful trip and 3-0 could assert the Bearcats’ position near the top line. Current Bracketology position: No. 3 seed.

Wichita State Shockers: 18-5 (8-3)

RPI: 23    KenPom: 18    BPI: 9    Sagarin: 13

G1: 1-3    G2: 9-2    G3: 3-0    G4: 5-0

Wichita State has been in a bit of a rut recently. Earlier this season, the Shockers were ranked as high as No. 3 in the nation. However, after dropping three of their last six games, this team has fallen to the No. 22 spot and is teetering on the edge of dropping out of the rankings. This stretch has been difficult for the team but they are still in great shape to reach the NCAA Tournament. Their seeding has suffered but there is still hope for a resurgence from Landry Shamet and Co.

The next two games for Wichita State should be able to improve their confidence. UConn and Temple are far from cupcake opponents and they will help the Shockers get back on track. After hopefully securing those two wins, Gregg Marshall’s team will travel for the biggest game of their season. On Feb. 18, Wichita State will go on the road to face Cincinnati. Circle your calendars now. Current Bracketology position: No. 7 seed.

Houston Cougars: 18-5 (8-3)

RPI: 33    KenPom: 33    BPI: 33    Sagarin: 44

G1: 3-2    G2: 3-2    G3: 3-0    G4: 9-1

Houston is squarely on the bubble at this point in the year. The Cougars have a quality overall record and have secured some solid wins to propel them into the projected field. However, their loss to Drexel at the beginning of the season continues to haunt them. For any team on the bubble, a Group 4 loss can be an absolute killer. It is important to note, though, that the team has built a tournament-caliber resume despite that loss.

Rob Gray Jr. is one of the best players in the country that you haven’t seen play yet. He is the leading scorer and passer on the Cougars and has the skills to beat anyone on any given night. With a home game against Cincinnati coming up, can Gray and Co. pull off the upset? Beating the Bearcats would certainly make Houston’s position more secure but there are so many teams that would qualify as bad losses left on Houston’s schedule. Current Bracketology position: No. 11 seed.

SMU Mustangs: 15-9 (5-6)

RPI: 74    KenPom: 54    BPI: 46    Sagarin: 49

G1: 2-3    G2: 3-5    G3: 2-1    G4: 8-0

SMU is below-.500 in conference play and that is worrying for their tournament profile. While conference record has nothing to do with reaching the tournament, the AAC is not strong enough to send a team with a below-.500 record to the dance. Thankfully, the upcoming schedule for the Mustangs gives them plenty of opportunities to move up.

In their final seven games, there are matchups against the two sure-fire tournament squads (Cincinnati and Wichita State at home). This stretch also includes battles with Houston and UCF. To close things out, they should add a couple of easy wins over Memphis, South Florida, and South Florida. Considering this schedule, SMU will still be right in the thick of the NCAA Tournament conversation if they finish 5-2 and snag a win or two in the conference tournament. Current Bracketology position:  Out.

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