Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing Big Dance odds in mid-February

Atlantic Coast Conference

Key in the lock: Virginia, Duke, Clemson, North Carolina

Some perspiration: Miami, Florida State

Add more deodorant: Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Virginia Cavaliers: 23-1 (12-0)

RPI: 1    KenPom: 1    BPI: 2    Sagarin: 1

G1: 7-1    G2: 5-0    G3: 6-0    G4: 5-0

Is Virginia the best team in the country? As we approach mid-February, it definitely feels like it. Teams around them have faltered as of late (looking at you, Villanova and Purdue) and the Cavaliers just continue to win. Tony Bennett has his most balanced squad since arriving at UVA with an average offense and the best defense in the nation by a long shot.

Behind the play of Devon Hall, Kyle Guy, and Ty Jerome, the Cavaliers’ offense also has more than just one go-to guy this year. In addition to being good scorers, these three are remarkable free throw shooters. Given Virginia’s ridiculous defense and efficiency from the foul line, it is impossible to make a comeback on this team. Current Bracketology position: No. 1 seed.

Duke Blue Devils: 19-5 (7-4)

RPI: 7    KenPom: 5    BPI: 5    Sagarin: 8

G1: 4-4    G2: 3-1    G3: 9-0    G4: 3-0

We all have heard plenty about Duke this year. The Blue Devils are quite possibly the most talented team in the country and they have shown glimpses of being that at different times this season. Yet, they also have a few perplexing losses, most notably the one to St. John’s. While this team is still in the running for a No. 1 seed this year, they need to become more consistent. Could this be another Duke team that receives a high seed only to fall before the second weekend?

With a dominating talent like Marvin Bagley III, it is hard to see that happening but it is possible. The Blue Devils have lost three of their last four games, including one to their hated rivals, the North Carolina Tar Heels. Down the stretch of the ACC season, Duke will face several NCAA Tournament hopefuls. It is still possible that Duke is awarded a No. 1 seed but they could also slip down the seed lines in a hurry if they do not get back on track. Current Bracketology position: No. 2 seed.

Clemson Tigers: 20-4 (8-3)

RPI: 4    KenPom: 17    BPI: 18    Sagarin: 26

G1: 4-4    G2: 6-0    G3: 4-0    G4: 6-0

Clemson continues to fly under the radar this season due to the popularity of Virginia and the North Carolina schools. Yet, the Tigers look the part of being the second-best team in the conference this season. The loss of Donte Grantham is certainly a killer but the team is still thriving without him. Tony Bennett of UVA looks like a shoe-in for Coach of the Year in the conference right now but Brad Brownell deserves more recognition.

Just about every game down the stretch of the ACC schedule for Clemson comes against potential tournament teams. If they thrive, we might start having to talk about the Tigers for a No. 1 seed. For now, though, they fall just behind that grouping in a comfortable position to make a deep run. Current Bracketology position: No. 2 seed.

North Carolina Tar Heels: 18-7 (7-5)

RPI: 11    KenPom: 12    BPI: 11    Sagarin: 13

G1: 5-5    G2: 4-1    G3: 6-1    G4: 3-0

Are the Tar Heels back? After losing three straight games just a couple of weeks ago, North Carolina has bounced back with two wins. While beating Pittsburgh is not an indication of anything, knocking off Duke can be. The Tar Heels did just that in their last game, using their home crowd and 20+ point performances from Kenny Williams and Joel Berry to defeat their rivals. This marked North Carolina’s fifth Group 1 win this season. Their resume rankings are also excellent.

The only concern for North Carolina’s seeding at this point is that four of their final six games come on the road, including matchups with Miami and Duke. In conference play, North Carolina’s road record sits at just 1-4. This will need to improve if the Tar Heels are to move up the seed lines in the coming weeks. Current Bracketology position: No. 4 seed.

Miami Hurricanes: 18-5 (7-4)

RPI: 19    KenPom: 28    BPI: 22    Sagarin: 24

G1: 3-4    G2: 3-0    G3: 6-1    G4: 6-0

This stretch of schedule has been kind to the Hurricanes. Thanks to matchups with Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest, the Hurricanes are currently riding a three-game winning streak. This string of victories has put Miami firmly over .500 in ACC play and has improved their stock for the NCAA Tournament. Sure, these wins were not over the top of the conference but a win is a win at this point in the year.

Miami’s next game could be troubling, though. While going on the road to face Boston College should be a win, it has major potential to be a trap game. In the game following their bout with BC, Miami will return home for a pivotal battle with Virginia. By the time that game tips off, it is very likely that the Cavaliers will be the No. 1 team in the AP top-25. With the magnitude that that game carries, it could be easy for Miami to look past Boston College. That simply cannot happen. Current Bracketology position: No. 6 seed.

Florida State Seminoles: 17-7 (6-6)

RPI: 41    KenPom: 19    BPI: 21    Sagarin: 19

G1: 5-3    G2: 1-3    G3: 3-1    G4: 8-0

Florida State has slipped slightly as of late due to a couple of losses in their last three games. Yet, the Seminoles are still in quality shape to go dancing with a solid seed. The team’s overall resume is not all that impressive, especially considering the recent slide of North Carolina, one of Florida State’s best wins. In addition, their RPI is nothing special.

This team should be safe in regards to going dancing but how much damage they can do once they get to the Big Dance is questionable. With two ranked teams coming to Tallahassee over the next couple of weeks (Virginia and Clemson), we are going to get a good look at where this team is at. If they win one or both of those games, then their odds of being a second-weekend team will improve. Current Bracketology position: No. 7 seed.

Louisville Cardinals: 17-8 (7-5)

RPI: 43    KenPom: 34    BPI: 34    Sagarin: 28

G1: 1-6    G2: 2-2    G3: 7-0    G4: 7-0

Anyone else find it odd to be talking about Louisville on the bubble? The Cardinals have been one of the most consistent programs in the country over the last several years but this has been a down season. However, considering their off-the-court issues, even being in contention for a bid could be seen as a success. For Louisville fans, though, they will not be happy if the team misses the dance.

If the tournament started today, the Cardinals would be in the field. Yet, with three losses in four games (only win came over Georgia Tech at home), Louisville needs to get on track in a hurry. This is especially important because the team will have to face Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia in their last six games. For a team with only one Group 1 win, this stretch could be a blessing or a curse. Current Bracketology position: No. 10 seed.

NC State Wolfpack: 16-8 (6-5)

RPI: 60    KenPom: 60    BPI: 57    Sagarin: 57

G1: 4-5    G2: 0-1    G3: 4-2    G4: 8-0

With an above-.500 record in one of the top leagues in the nation, NC State belongs in the NCAA Tournament discussion. Already with wins over Duke, North Carolina, and Clemson, the key for the Wolfpack moving forward is to avoid bad losses. Their poor numbers across resume rankings are the biggest issue facing the Wolfpack during the rest of the season. They sit outside of the top-50 in every major ranking system and that could seriously come back to haunt them.

The good news for NC State is that there are plenty of opportunities to add easy wins down the stretch of their schedule. Of their last seven games, only four of them come against potential NCAA Tournament teams. In addition, their matchup with North Carolina in their next game is the last game that NC State has against a team firmly in the field. The bad news in regards to their schedule is that it represents a minefield of potential losses. Current Bracketology position: No. 11 seed.

Syracuse Orange: 16-8 (5-6)

RPI: 37    KenPom: 46    BPI: 52    Sagarin: 47

G1: 2-4    G2: 2-2    G3: 7-2    G4: 5-0

After dropping back-to-back games against Georgia Tech and Virginia, Syracuse got back on track with a big win in their last game. Their victory on the road over Louisville marked the best win of the season to date for the Orange. Sometimes all it takes is one big win to get a hot streak started so Syracuse will be an interesting team to watch in the next couple of weeks. With home games against Wake Forest and NC State coming up, the Orange have a good shot at moving back over .500 in conference play.

As far as their resume numbers go, Syracuse has some work to do. The best way to move these numbers up is by taking care of business at home and snagging some quality road wins. Considering Syracuse is just 11-8 in games outside of Group 4, they have work to do down the stretch of this season. The key period for this team is still coming this year. Between Feb. 17 and Feb. 24, the Orange will face Miami (away), North Carolina (home), and Duke (away) in three straight games. Current Bracketology position: No. 11 seed.

Virginia Tech Hokies: 17-7 (6-5)

RPI: 66    KenPom: 42    BPI: 30    Sagarin: 39

G1: 2-5    G2: 5-1    G3: 2-1    G4: 8-0

Virginia Tech had fallen off of the bubble earlier this season. For an extended period of time, they were off of my radar as a potential NCAA Tournament team. Yet, with four wins in their last five games, it is time to take note of the Hokies once again. During this quality stretch of games, Virginia Tech picked up two wins over other possible tournament teams in North Carolina and NC State. The next two games for the Hokies, though, will decide just how real their chances for a bid are.

During this stretch, Virginia Tech will go on the road for back-to-back games against top-10 teams in the nation. Virginia and Duke represent two of the best teams in the nation and the Hokies will have their hands full trying to beat either one on the road. Just one win, though, and the team will jump up the rankings. Current Bracketology position: Out.