Busting Brackets
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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing Big Dance odds in mid-February

By Lukas Harkins

KANSAS CITY, MO - DECEMBER 06: Jaylen Nowell #5 of the Washington Huskies smiles after drawing a foul during the game against the Kansas Jayhawks at the Sprint Center on December 6, 2017 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
KANSAS CITY, MO - DECEMBER 06: Jaylen Nowell #5 of the Washington Huskies smiles after drawing a foul during the game against the Kansas Jayhawks at the Sprint Center on December 6, 2017 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /
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LAWRENCE, KS – JANUARY 27: A general view of Kansas Jayhawks fans during the game against the Texas A
LAWRENCE, KS – JANUARY 27: A general view of Kansas Jayhawks fans during the game against the Texas A /

Big 12 Conference

Key in the lock: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Some perspiration: TCU, Texas

Add more deodorant: Kansas State, Oklahoma State

Kansas Jayhawks: 19-5 (8-3)

RPI: 6    KenPom: 11    BPI: 7    Sagarin: 6

G1: 8-2    G2: 4-2    G3: 3-1    G4: 3-0

Kansas is in line for a No. 1 seed. This should come as no surprise given their program history and how well they have played this season. Even though there was a rocky stretch a few weeks ago, Bill Self has a fantastic squad that is off to a great start in Big 12 play. Considering several other top teams have lost recently, even Kansas’ loss to Oklahoma State can be easily forgiven.

The Jayhawks have plenty of talent to make a deep run in the Big Dance and are led by a go-to guard in Devonte’ Graham. In addition, the team is seeing an emergence from Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk as a reliable scorer on the perimeter. With this backcourt and plenty of talent around it, Kansas is the favorite to win the Big 12 and could be a favorite to win the national championship. Current Bracketology position: No. 2 seed.

Oklahoma Sooners: 16-7 (6-5)

RPI: 17    KenPom: 25    BPI: 29    Sagarin: 23

G1: 5-6    G2: 3-1    G3: 3-0    G4: 5-0

After a scorching start to the season, Oklahoma has cooled down as of late. Trae Young continues to make headline after headline but the team is just 2-5 in their last seven games. This stretch of play has greatly dropped the Sooners both in the AP poll and in regards to NCAA Tournament seeding. In addition, the upcoming schedule might not be very kind to the Sooners. Their final seven games include four on the road, including games against Texas Tech and Kansas.

The Big 12 comes with several opportunities for crucial wins but it is also a place where losses can pile up in a hurry. In Oklahoma’s next game, they go on the road to face Iowa State. This might seem like an easy game but nobody goes to Hilton Coliseum and walks out saying “that was easy.” After that, the team remains on the road to take on Texas Tech, one of the top teams in the league. Current Bracketology position: No. 4 seed.

Texas Tech Red Raiders: 20-4 (8-3)

RPI: 13    KenPom: 9    BPI: 13    Sagarin: 11

G1: 5-3    G2: 5-1    G3: 3-0    G4: 7-0

Speaking of Texas Tech, let’s talk about them a bit more. One of the best surprises in the nation, the Red Raiders have been tremendous this season. With every game that they play, Keenan Evans is getting more national recognition as one of the best guards in the country. This is well-deserved as the team has practically rolled through their competition this season. With an 8-3 record in the best conference in the nation, Texas Tech belongs in the discussion for a great seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The question for this team isn’t whether or not they will make the Big Dance but is about how high that can be seeded. They are currently riding a five-game winning streak and will be favored to win the majority of their remaining games. As long as they continue to win, the resume rankings will increase and so will their projected seed. Current Bracketology position: No. 3 seed.

West Virginia Mountaineers: 18-6 (7-4)

RPI: 24    KenPom: 15    BPI: 8    Sagarin: 7

G1: 5-5    G2: 5-1    G3: 1-0    G4: 7-0

West Virginia swept Oklahoma this season. Regardless of the Sooners’ struggles of late, this should not be taken lightly. The Mountaineers, led by senior Jevon Carter, are one of the most balanced teams in the nation. Press Virginia is once again NCAA Tournament-bound and they are only working on their seeding at this point.

Unlike other teams in the Big 12, West Virginia finishes with a fairly easy schedule. The Mountaineers have the luxury of playing four of their last seven games at home. In addition, two of those road games are fairly winnable (Baylor and Texas). West Virginia should be able to finish firmly over-.500 in conference play and receive a top-4 seed. Current Bracketology position: No. 5 seed.

TCU Horned Frogs: 16-8 (4-7)

RPI: 32    KenPom: 25    BPI: 21    Sagarin: 21

G1: 4-7    G2: 2-1    G3: 5-0    G4: 5-0

Once one of the top teams in the nation, TCU has not had an easy go of things in Big 12 play. They are currently sitting with a poor record in conference play and are dropping down seed lines. Yet, their non-conference resume was so good that they are still in the field despite a 4-7 record in the Big 12. That is certainly the good news for TCU fans.

The bad news is that the likelihood of the Horned Frogs making a run in the Big Dance is seemingly dropping by the day. With three losses in their last four games, the team is trending in the wrong direction. If the tournament started today, they would likely be in an 8/9 game and it could be ugly. Even without Jaylen Fisher, the team has enough talent to be a scary No. 6 or 7 seed if they figure things out down the stretch. Current Bracketology position: No. 9 seed.

Texas Longhorns: 15-9 (5-6)

RPI: 46    KenPom: 38    BPI: 39    Sagarin: 35

G1: 4-6    G2: 3-3    G3: 4-0    G4: 4-0

Texas really hasn’t done anything special this season. Their paper resume is fairly average and their play on the court is too inconsistent to make an eye test judgment. Mohamed Bamba is one of the best big men in the entire nation but the team is brought down by poor 3-point shooting. The Longhorns shoot just 31.0% from deep as a team (329th in the nation) and their lack of spacing is a real problem.

Yet, if they reach the NCAA Tournament, Bamba’s presence inside could cause serious problems for their opponent. Bamba has the size and reputation that makes going to the lane a dangerous proposition for any guard. We have seen him disrupt offense after offense this season as he is a major difference-maker. Current Bracketology position: No. 9 seed.

Kansas State Wildcats: 17-7 (6-5)

RPI: 59    KenPom: 48    BPI: 51    Sagarin: 46

G1: 3-6    G2: 4-0    G3: 4-1    G4: 6-0

Kansas State is the Big 12 team that is most firmly on the bubble. Even though the Wildcats lost back-to-back games to Kansas and West Virginia recently, they still belong in the discussion for the Big Dance. When playing in the best league in the nation, being over-.500 has to mean something. Dean Wade and Barry Brown have emerged as stars for this team and they will be needed down the stretch if K-State is going to go dancing.

Kansas State’s next game comes at home against Texas Tech. This represents a massive opportunity to add yet another Group 1 win. The Wildcats need to improve their resume rankings down the stretch of this season and defeating the Red Raiders would be a great start. A road battle with Oklahoma in their third-to-last game is another potentially excellent win for the team. Current Bracketology position: No. 11 seed.

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