Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing Big Dance odds in mid-February

Big East Conference

Key in the lock: Villanova, Xavier

Some perspiration: Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler

Add more deodorant: Providence, Marquette

Villanova Wildcats: 22-2 (9-2)

RPI: 3    KenPom: 2    BPI: 1    Sagarin: 3

G1: 9-1    G2: 3-1    G3: 6-0    G4: 4-0

Let’s get this clear right off the bat. Even though Villanova lost to St. John’s this week, they still belong as a No. 1 seed. Losses are bound to happen from time to time and the Wildcats ran into a hot team at the wrong time. With only two losses on the season, Villanova is still in great shape to be on the top line. In a league as challenging as the Big East, though, another loss could be knocking on the door fairly soon.

In fact, the next three games for the Wildcats are all going to be difficult. In this stretch, they get Butler at home (who has beaten them three consecutive times) followed by road games against Providence and Xavier. If Villanova goes 3-0 in that stretch, then we will be back to talking about them as the No. 1 overall seed in the entire tournament. Yet, 2-1 or even 1-2 seem more likely. Current Bracketology position: No. 1 seed.

Xavier Musketeers: 22-3 (10-2)

RPI: 2    KenPom: 16    BPI: 14    Sagarin: 13

G1: 6-3    G2: 7-0    G3: 5-0    G4: 4-0

This is an eye test team. Outside of RPI, Xavier’s resume rankings are not very good for a potential No. 1 seed. Yet, the Musketeers are impressive in every single game they play. Even when they are pushed to their limits by teams such as St. John’s and Georgetown, they find ways to come out on top. Of course, there was also that incredible road win they had over Butler. They may have blown a seven-point lead in the last 1:30 but they also recovered and squashed Butler’s hopes of victory in overtime.

Regardless of the situation, Xavier just seems to win games. Trevon Bluiett is arguably the best player in the country in clutch situations and Kerem Kanter is emerging as an elite big man in the conference. Xavier is firmly in the discussion for a No. 1 seed this season. With matchups against Creighton (away), Seton Hall (home), and Villanova (home) coming up, they have a chance to solidify themselves as the top team in the Big East as well as mark their territory as a No. 1 seed. Current Bracketology position: No. 1 seed.

Seton Hall Pirates: 17-7 (6-5)

RPI: 24    KenPom: 30    BPI: 28    Sagarin: 31

G1: 5-5    G2: 1-1    G3: 6-1    G4: 5-0

Seton Hall is in the midst of a tough stretch. The team has lost both of their last two games (Villanova and Marquette) and will face hostile environments in their next two. With back-to-back road games against Georgetown and Xavier, the Pirates are in danger of dropping four consecutive games. Even if this does happen, Seton Hall will still be in good shape to reach the NCAA Tournament but their seeding could take a serious hit.

Seton Hall was once considered to be the clear-cut third-best team in the Big East but now they are lucky to be considered in the top five. Still, with veteran leaders and an elite big man in Angel Delgado, the Pirates could be a scary team to see in March. This team is somewhat reminiscent of last season’s Wisconsin Badgers’ team. That team was also incredibly experienced and talented but suffered a late-season slide to land in an 8/9 game. Then, that team upset Villanova and reached the Sweet 16. Current Bracketology position: No. 5 seed.

Creighton Bluejays: 18-6 (8-4)

RPI: 22    KenPom: 23    BPI: 19    Sagarin: 15

G1: 3-5    G2: 5-1    G3: 4-0    G4: 6-0

Creighton has been extremely solid this season. At this point in the season, it seems fairly clear that Creighton is the third-best team in the Big East. They consistently win games and have, for the most part, avoided bad losses in conference play. In addition, their NCAA Tournament position is in great shape. To me, this is one of the teams that is most likely to rise over the coming weeks into a potential top-4 seed.

Already with an 8-4 conference record, four of Creighton’s last six conference games come at home. Two of those come against Xavier and Villanova but would it be a major surprise if the Bluejays won one of those games? Khyri Thomas and Marcus Foster have this team in remarkable position. With Villanova and Xavier receiving the press from the Big East as potential No. 1 seeds, Creighton is flying way too far under the radar. Current Bracketology position: No. 6 seed.

Butler Bulldogs: 17-8 (7-5)

RPI: 36    KenPom: 20    BPI: 24    Sagarin: 27

G1: 3-8    G2: 3-0    G3: 5-0    G4: 6-0

Butler takes care of business. It has been that simple this season for the Bulldogs. Unlike just about every other team in the country, Butler does not have a single bad loss on their resume. In addition, they hold two tremendously good wins over Villanova and Ohio State. While it would have been nice to add Xavier to that list earlier this week, the team fell in overtime in front of their home crowd.

Yet, this is a team that is NCAA Tournament-bound and could make some noise. There are very few teams in the country that can stop the Bulldogs when Kelan Martin and Kamar Baldwin have it going. While Martin is one of the best scorers in the entire nation, Baldwin has the ability to lock down just about any guard. Also, give Paul Jorgensen a stage as big as the NCAA Tournament and he will put on a show for you. Current Bracketology position: No. 6 seed.

Providence Friars: 16-8 (7-4)

RPI: 27    KenPom: 63    BPI: 64    Sagarin: 53

G1: 5-5     G2: 2-1    G3: 5-2     G4: 4-0

Providence is an interesting position. They have a few excellent wins but also a couple of bad losses. In addition, their non-RPI resume rankings are abysmal. With these factors considered, it is obvious why the Friars are sitting on the bubble right now. Having said this, though, Providence is one of the teams that I am confident will make the tournament at the moment.

Now finally healthy, the Friars are playing excellent basketball and are in competition with Butler to be the No. 4 seed in the Big East Tournament at the end of the year. The Friars also have one remaining matchup with each of St. John’s, DePaul, and Georgetown. If the team wins those games, they will have already secured an above-.500 record in conference play. While conference standings have nothing to do with making or missing the NCAA Tournament, I find it hard to believe that a Big East team with 10 conference wins would miss the Big Dance. Current Bracketology position: No. 9 seed.

Marquette Golden Eagles: 14-10 (5-7)

RPI: 57    KenPom: 49     BPI: 47     Sagarin: 50

G1: 3-8     G2: 2-2    G3: 3-0    G4: 6-0

It would be really fun to see Marquette in the NCAA Tournament again. They have arguably the most potent offense in the country and a backcourt duo talented enough to win any game. With this being said, though, the team is currently sitting on the outside of the tournament looking in. Their overall poor record in conference play and weak resume rankings are what cause this. Of course, their porous defense on the court has also led to those numbers.

On the whole, it would not take much for Marquette to get back into the projected field. They have a fairly easy closing schedule in conference play, even if four of the six games come on the road. The key for Marquette will be if they can get to .500 in the Big East. If the Golden Eagles find a way to reach nine conference wins, they should be in decent shape to go dancing. Current Bracketology position: Out.