Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing Big Dance odds in mid-February
Big Ten Conference
Key in the lock: Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State
Some perspiration: Michigan
Add more deodorant: Maryland, Nebraska
Purdue Boilermakers: 23-3 (11-1)
RPI: 12 KenPom: 3 BPI: 3 Sagarin: 2
G1: 5-2 G2: 6-1 G3: 6-1 G4: 6-0
Even though the Boilermakers dropped their last game to Ohio State, they still belong as a No. 1 seed. Purdue has been exceptional all season long (minus that one stretch of the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament). Matt Painter’s team is one of the most balanced in the country and can win a game in several different ways. With a road game against Michigan State coming up, though, we will get another chance to see how well this team plays against quality opposition.
If they win that game and then win out the regular season as they should, it will be very difficult to leave this team off the top line in the NCAA Tournament. Once they get there, the Boilermakers will a force to be reckoned with. They are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation and the size of Isaac Haas and Matt Haarms can cause issues for any team.Current Bracketology position: No. 1 seed.
Michigan State Spartans: 23-3 (11-2)
RPI: 20 KenPom: 6 BPI: 6 Sagarin: 4
G1: 2-2 G2: 3-1 G3: 10-0 G4: 8-0
Somehow, Michigan State just continues to win games. They are currently riding a seven-game winning streak but very little of that has been easy. During that stretch, they have defeated Maryland, Penn State, Indiana, and Iowa all by less than ten points. In addition, two of those games were three-point victories. Michigan State has clearly shown weaknesses in Big Ten play and that does not bode well for when they hit more difficult competition.
Yet, we will find out just how “real” this team is when Purdue comes to town in their next game. If the Spartans win that game, then they will skyrocket up my seed lines. If the team finishes the regular season without another loss, then their RPI will rise and they will finally be in consideration for a No. 1 seed. Current Bracketology position: No. 3 seed.
Ohio State Buckeyes: 21-5 (12-1)
RPI: 16 KenPom: 13 BPI: 15 Sagarin: 17
G1: 2-4 G2: 5-0 G3: 9-1 G4: 5-0
Ohio State has easily been one of the biggest surprises in the nation this season. At this point, I think it is clear to say that Chris Holtmann is more than deserving of being named Big Ten Coach of the Year when the season concludes. In addition, he should be getting serious consideration for Coach of the Year in the entire nation. He has made this team a national title contender and that should be honored. Of course, it does help to have a talented player like Keita Bates-Diop to give the ball to.
The biggest game remaining on Ohio State’s schedule is road date with their rivals, the Michigan Wolverines. If the Buckeyes manage to win that game (and the others on their schedule), they should be a top-4 seed in their respective NCAA Tournament region. When the Big Dance starts, watch out for the Buckeyes. Current Bracketology position: No. 5 seed.
Michigan Wolverines: 19-7 (8-5)
RPI: 40 KenPom: 29 BPI: 25 Sagarin: 29
G1: 2-5 G2: 2-2 G3: 5-0 G4: 9-0
Speaking of the Michigan Wolverines, let’s talk about their NCAA Tournament resume. Michigan is clearly in good shape to reach the Big Dance but their resume does not jump off of the table. They do not have a superb record in quality matchups nor do they have an abundance of those games on their resume. Their strength of schedule is pedestrian as is their collection of wins. With all things considered, this team seems destined for an 8/9 or 7/10 matchup in the Big Dance.
Yet, with a somewhat difficult closing schedule, even with the top-heavy nature of the Big Ten, Michigan could hypothetically rise in the coming weeks. After hopefully taking care of business against Wisconsin and Iowa in their next two games, the Wolverines’ final three games leave solid opportunities. They get Ohio State at home and then road matchups with Penn State and Maryland follow. Current Bracketology position: No. 8 seed.
Maryland Terrapins: 16-10 (5-8)
RPI: 61 KenPom: 40 BPI: 37 Sagarin: 38
G1: 0-8 G2: 1-2 G3: 8-0 G4: 6-0
How Maryland remains on the bubble is a mystery to me. The Big Ten is clearly a weak league this year after the top 3-4 and Maryland is just a miserable 5-8. In addition, this record includes four losses in their last five games. Yet, the remaining schedule for Maryland is friendly and will give them a couple of solid opportunities for resume-builders. Most notably, the Terrapins have a road game against Nebraska and a home game against Michigan remaining on their schedule.
If Maryland wins out, they will be 10-8 in conference play with those two wins. This is far from an elite resume even at that record but going dancing would not be out of the realm of possibility. Any loss in the next five games for the Terps could be bubble-popping. Current Bracketology position: Out.
Nebraska Cornhuskers: 18-8 (9-4)
RPI: 54 KenPom: 56 BPI: 65 Sagarin: 60
G1: 0-6 G2: 3-2 G3: 7-0 G4: 8-0
Welcome to the bubble, Nebraska! The Cornhuskers are winners of four in a row and hold a conference record of 9-4. In addition, their closing schedule in the Big Ten is about as easy as it gets. The only three remotely difficult opponents left on their schedule are Maryland, Indiana, and Penn State. Luckily, all three of those games come at home. In fact, only one of Nebraska’s last five games comes away from home (at Illinois).
If Nebraska finishes the regular season on a nine-game winning streak while holding a 23-8 (14-4) record, they belong in the Big Dance. Yes, even with a 0-6 record in Group 1 games, they could reach the NCAA Tournament. If that doesn’t summarize how easy it is to go dancing this year, I don’t know what does. Current Bracketology position: Out.