Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing Big Dance odds in mid-February

Pacific-12 Conference

Key in the lock: Arizona

Some perspiration: Arizona State

Add more deodorant: Washington, USC, UCLA, Utah

Arizona Wildcats: 19-6 (9-3)

RPI: 21    KenPom: 27    BPI: 23    Sagarin: 20

G1: 2-3    G2: 6-3    G3: 6-0    G4: 5-0

Arizona has lost back-to-back games but is still in great shape in regards to the NCAA Tournament. Their seeding may take a hit due to the losses but it certainly helped out the conference as a whole. Given the Wildcats’ losses came to Washington and UCLA, this stretch could increase the Pac-12’s number of total bids. Of course, right now, that matters very little to the Wildcats.

With two more difficult games coming up (vs. USC, at Arizona State), Arizona is in danger of continuing a losing streak that would greatly drop them down the seed lines. The Wildcats already do not have a tremendously great resume but are thriving by passing the eye test. Where the Wildcats will end up on Selection Sunday could honestly be anywhere from a No. 3 seed to a No. 7. Current Bracketology position: No. 4 seed.

Arizona State Sun Devils: 18-6 (6-6)

RPI: 34    KenPom: 31    BPI: 42    Sagarin: 36

G1: 3-3    G2: 4-2    G3: 6-1    G4: 5-0

One of the more disappointing teams in conference play this season, Arizona State has played itself onto the bubble and has been moving in the wrong direction. Thankfully, though, the team has won their last two games and is hopefully back on track. With this being said, though, their ceiling is probably getting back to the No. 6 line. Aside from a home game against Arizona, there is nothing left on ASU’s schedule to indicate a big move down the stretch.

This is still a team that can put up big offensive numbers but is struggling to win games even when they do hit 80+ points in the game. If the team returns to the form they were playing at in November and early December, then watch out for an incredibly dangerous 7-10 seed. Current Bracketology position: No. 10 seed.

Washington Huskies: 17-7 (7-4)

RPI: 39    KenPom: 97    BPI: 119    Sagarin: 98

G1: 4-3    G2: 1-3    G3: 4-1    G4: 8-0

Oh, hey Washington. I didn’t think I would see you here. Yet, after four wins in their last five games, including wins over Arizona and Arizona State, Washington has reached the bubble. Obviously, the drubbing they received at the hands of Oregon in their last game was not expected but it is still possible for the Huskies to dance. While their closing schedule is not particularly difficult, they have some opportunities to add under-the-radar Group 2 wins.

The team cannot afford very many losses down the stretch, though. With seven games left on their schedule, 5-2 might be mandatory to remain in consideration. Still, with four of their games coming at home and a couple of easy road games on the schedule, Washington can make it happen. Current Bracketology position: No. 8 seed.

USC Trojans: 17-8 (8-4)

RPI: 44    KenPom: 43    BPI: 48    Sagarin: 40

G1: 2-5    G2: 4-2    G3: 5-0     G4: 6-1

Just look at the resume rankings for USC above. That is about as consistent as it gets. The only issue with it is that numbers in the mid-40s are not exactly evidence of an at-large team. The Trojans have not lived up their preseason top-10 hype this season but are still a capable basketball team. The issue with the Trojans on the court is that they are ridiculously inconsistent. After going on a six-game conference play recently, the team followed it up with back-to-back road losses to UCLA and Arizona State.

While these are not bad losses, a losing streak at this point in the season is not a good sign. I would say that the Trojans have a good shot to get back on track in their next game but winning on the road against Arizona is almost impossible. However, if USC does upset the Wildcats, that would greatly help their NCAA Tournament profile. Current Bracketology position: No. 11 seed.

UCLA Bruins: 17-7 (8-4)

RPI: 51    KenPom: 50    BPI: 60    Sagarin: 41

G1: 2-3    G2: 3-3    G3: 6-1    G4: 6-0

UCLA has won four consecutive games, including wins over USC and Arizona (on the road). This has put the team in much better position on the bubble with another opportunity coming up. In the Bruins’ next game, they travel to face Arizona State. The Sun Devils are another potential tournament team and would go down as a Group 1 win for the Bruins. However, regardless of the outcome of UCLA’s game against ASU, their season will come down to their final three games.

To close Pac-12 play, the Bruins have to face Utah, Colorado, and USC in back-to-back-to-back games. Oh, and did I mention that all three of those games will come on the road? Talk about a potentially disastrous final stretch of games. Current Bracketology position: Out.

Utah Utes: 14-9 (6-6)

RPI: 58    KenPom: 69    BPI: 84    Sagarin: 61

G1: 2-6    G2: 2-2    G3: 4-1    G4: 6-0

Utah needs a lot of help to reach the Big Dance. In similar fashion to Maryland from the Big Ten, a 14-9 (6-6) record just won’t cut it in a down year for the Pac-12. Considering the team is under-.500 in G1/2/3 games this season, it seems incredibly unlikely that they will go dancing. The team has a ton of work to do to go dancing and it is lucky that they get to face Washington, UCLA, and USC down the stretch of this season.

Those three could all end up being must-wins for the Utes but two of them are played at home. Utah is still alive when it comes to potentially receiving a bid but it is going to take a massive effort. Current Bracketology position: Out.