Bracketology Bubble Watch: Analyzing Big Dance odds in mid-February
Southeastern Conference
Key in the lock: Auburn, Tennessee
Some perspiration: Kentucky, Florida
Add more deodorant: Alabama, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, Mississippi State
Auburn Tigers: 21-3 (9-2)
RPI: 9 KenPom: 10 BPI: 17 Sagarin: 21
G1: 4-3 G2: 5-0 G3: 6-0 G4: 6-0
Despite losing their last game to Texas A&M, Auburn is having a tremendous season. Overall, they only have three losses and they hold some outstanding wins over the course of the season. Head coach Bruce Pearl has his team in great position not only for an NCAA Tournament bid but for a potential No. 1 seed. Although they are currently not on that top line in my opinion, they are not far away.
Down the stretch of this season, Auburn has to go on the road to face Georgia, Florida, and Arkansas. These will each be difficult games for the Tigers if they want to stay in the running for a No. 1 seed. Current Bracketology position: No. 2 seed.
Tennessee Volunteers: 18-5 (8-3)
RPI: 11 KenPom: 7 BPI: 12 Sagarin: 14
G1: 5-5 G2: 4-0 G3: 6-0 G4: 3-0
Another team that is firmly in the NCAA Tournament field, Tennessee is on a roll right now. They have won six consecutive games, including a road victory over Kentucky. This has been a sensational season so far for the Volunteers but there is work still to be done. Given how successful the team has been in the regular season, one can only hope that that will be replicated in the postseason.
Due to their play so far this season, Tennessee is in a superb position to receive a top-4 seed and there is still a possibility that they get on the No. 1 seed line. With this being said, Tennessee definitely has second-weekend potential and anything can happen at that point. Current Bracketology position: No. 3 seed.
Kentucky Wildcats: 17-7 (6-5)
RPI: 15 KenPom: 26 BPI: 32 Sagarin: 18
G1: 2-5 G2: 8-2 G3: 3-0 G4: 4-0
Kentucky, despite losing their past two games to Missouri and Tennessee, is still in good shape for the NCAA Tournament. Yet, their seeding has taken a significant hit over the last couple of weeks. Instead of sitting on the No. 3-4 lines like many were expecting, Kentucky is more towards the No. 5-7 seed spots at this point in time. What makes this a more dangerous proposition is that their next two games come on the road.
Both Texas A&M and Auburn will be difficult opponents for the Wildcats and it is possible that their losing streak gets extended to four in a hurry. If this occurs, then Kentucky will be in a tough position to make a run in the Big Dance. Everyone knows how difficult it is to reach the second weekend if a team is placed in an 8/9 matchup and that could end up being the case for BBN. Current Bracketology position: No. 5 seed.
Florida Gators: 16-8 (7-4)
RPI: 50 KenPom: 37 BPI: 35 Sagarin: 32
G1: 5-3 G2: 4-5 G3: 2-0 G4: 5-0
Florida does not have a tremendous resume but it is good enough to receive an at-large bid. The Gators have a great record in Group 1 games but they still have five Group 2 losses. This inconsistent play is part of what is dragging down their resume rankings. Most notably, Florida’s RPI is much lower than one would want at this point in the season. While it is expected that the Gators will improve this numbers with more wins down the stretch, it does limit their ceiling in terms of seeding.
Florida seems poised for a No. 6-9 seed depending on their play in the final seven games of their season. In addition to playing four of those games on the road, defeating their home opponents will be no easy task. Georgia, Auburn, and Kentucky are the final home games that Florida has this season. Current Bracketology position: No. 8 seed.
Alabama Crimson Tide: 15-9 (6-5)
RPI: 42 KenPom: 52 BPI: 53 Sagarin: 48
G1: 5-4 G2: 4-4 G3: 3-1 G4: 3-0
In similar fashion to Florida, Alabama has a solid record in Group 1 games but has faltered to a rather poor record outside of those contests. The difference between the two teams, though, is that Alabama’s KenPom, BPI, and Sagarin rankings are far below those of Florida. In addition, Alabama has done itself very few favors in recent weeks. The team picked up high-quality wins over Oklahoma and Florida but those were surrounded by losses to Ole Miss, Missouri, and Mississippi State.
The Crimson Tide have enough talent to beat just about anyone but they also lack consistency. They should still reach the NCAA Tournament this year but their closing stretch is awfully difficult. In addition to having to face Tennessee at home, Alabama has to go on the road to face Kentucky and Auburn in back-to-back games later down the road. Current Bracketology position: No. 9 seed.
Texas A&M Aggies: 16-8 (5-6)
RPI: 18 KenPom: 22 BPI: 31 Sagarin: 22
G1: 5-5 G2: 3-2 G3: 4-1 G4: 4-0
After dropping two road games to LSU and Kansas in late January, Texas A&M has gone on a three-game winning streak. During this streak, the team added home wins over Arkansas and South Carolina in addition to the crowning jewel of their resume. Upsetting Auburn on the road was a monster victory for the Aggies and it put them into much more solid position for the NCAA Tournament.
After facing Kentucky at home in their next game, Texas A&M will have the challenge of playing four out of five games on the road. If they can survive that gauntlet of a six-game stretch at 4-2, then fans in College Station will not need to sweat as much on Selection Sunday. Current Bracketology position: No. 9 seed.
Missouri Tigers: 16-8 (5-6)
RPI: 30 KenPom: 36 BPI: 45 Sagarin: 37
G1: 5-6 G2: 3-1 G3: 5-1 G4: 2-0
Just a few weeks ago, Missouri was in a dangerous position. They had dropped three consecutive games and were sitting at 3-5 in SEC play. At that point, they were right along the cutline for the NCAA Tournament in need of some big wins. Since then, though, the Tigers have won three consecutive games to move over .500 in conference play. During this winning streak, the team has beaten Alabama and Kentucky.
In addition, Missouri is heading into a two-game homestand. If the team knocks off both Mississippi State and Texas A&M, then their positioning will be even stronger. The issue with the SEC is that when every team is competing for a bid, every game is difficult. Missouri will need to handle the pressure of each game and stay ahead of the cutline. Current Bracketology position: No. 10 seed.
Arkansas Razorbacks: 16-8 (5-6)
RPI: 35 KenPom: 47 BPI: 43 Sagarin: 42
G1: 4-6 G2: 1-1 G3: 6-1 G4: 5-0
Unlike some of the other teams in the conference, Arkansas actually has a somewhat favorable closing schedule. In their final seven regular season games, the Razorbacks will play only three on the road. The important part about this is that all of those road games (Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri) are winnable for Arkansas. This team has slightly more work to do than the teams around them in the SEC and it is fortunate that the team has this schedule approaching.
It is too early to point to just one game that Arkansas needs to win to get into the Big Dance. In all honesty, just staying focused on winning the games on the schedule is the most important thing right now for the Razorbacks. Current Bracketology position: No. 10 seed.
LSU Tigers: 13-10 (4-7)
RPI: 81 KenPom: 68 BPI: 72 Sagarin: 74
G1: 4-4 G2: 3-5 G3: 0-1 G4: 6-0
Georgia Bulldogs: 13-10 (4-7)
RPI: 72 KenPom: 78 BPI: 86 Sagarin: 70
G1: 2-5 G2: 4-3 G3: 3-2 G4: 4-0
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 18-6 (6-5)
RPI: 55 KenPom: 64 BPI: 70 Sagarin: 63
G1: 2-5 G2: 3-1 G3: 3-0 G4: 9-0
All three of these teams are somewhat longshots to reach the NCAA Tournament. There is plenty of time for these teams to make moves, though, especially in the loaded SEC. Every game represents an opportunity for a big win and that is why these teams are still in consideration. For all three of them, the issue is that their resume rankings are far too low to go dancing.
The key reasoning behind thinking that these teams could make a late run for the dance is that they have already shown the ability to win big games. They each have at least two Group 1 wins and not every at-large team can say that. Current Bracketology position: None.