Michigan State Basketball: 2018-19 season preview for the Spartans

Key Questions and Prediction

1. Who replaces Bridges as the go-to scorer?

Miles Bridges was one of the best players in the country and was Michigan State’s leading scorer at 17.1 ppg. With Bridges off to the NBA, the Spartans need someone to emerge as the primary offensive option. The two candidates are Cassius Winston and Joshua Langford. Winston will start to earn some national notoriety as an elite player this season, but it is unlikely that he will be able to double as the primary facilitator and scorer. This is an extremely rare feat that might get devalued since Trae Young made it look so easy last year.

That leaves Langford and he must finally live up to his previous reputation as a 5-star player. Michigan State needs him to transform from a good starter to a star and elevate his scoring from 11 ppg to the 15-17 ppg range. This is certainly attainable for a player like Langford, especially when you have an elite PG like Winston to create open looks.

2. Can Nick Ward play more minutes and remain effective?

You may be asking why Nick Ward was not mentioned as a go-to scorer for the previous question. Ward was one of the most productive players in the country on a per minute basis and could put up monster numbers if given more minutes. Unfortunately, players in Ward’s archetype usually do not play starters minutes (28-30 mpg). The bulky, skilled, interior scoring big men are typically kept in that 22-25 mpg range in order to maintain their stamina and effectiveness when on the court. Players who play this infrequently cannot realistically be considered a go-to option.

Davante Gardner and Joshua Smith come to mind as big men whose playing time do not match their talent level, especially on the offensive end. Ward is not as big as Gardner and Smith, but the fact that he has not played more than 20 mpg in his career should be concerning. If Ward can play starter’s minutes and remain effective, the Spartans should run away with the Big Ten Title, but we will have to wait and see him in action before answering this question.

3. Which players emerge as consistent performers off the bench?

Michigan State has 11 players who could realistically lock down a consistent rotation spot, but the reserves are all very inexperienced. Ahrens and Tillman are the only returning players, but neither one has played more than 10 mpg in their careers. 2 or 3 of these reserves will need to separate themselves from the pack and emerge as reliable contributors who can add value when the starters are off the floor. Whether it’s shooting, scoring, defense, or just being a glue guy, the Spartans need bench production. My pick for bench players who will make a meaningful impact is Tillman, Loyer, and Henry.

Prediction:

This season, Michigan State looks like they will take a step back, but there is no clear top tier in the Big Ten like there was last season. In 17-18, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State were the only tournament teams, but they all received 6 seeds or better. In 18-19, the Big Ten looks a lot stronger in the middle and bottom, but the top is lacking clear favorites. This is a great opportunity for the Spartans to repeat as Big Ten champions.

I have Michigan State winning the Big Ten for the second straight season, but finishing slightly worse overall at 15th nationally. This would be a four seed which is one line lower than their three seed last season. Expect the Spartans to turn out another successful and nationally relevant season.