Bracketology Bubble Watch: Where do teams stand relative to the field?

Others to consider

Firmly in the field: Gonzaga, Nevada, Buffalo

Some perspiration: None.

Double the deodorant: Wofford, Lipscomb, San Francisco, Utah State, Fresno State, St. Mary’s

Gonzaga Bulldogs (19-2, 6-0 WCC)

NET: 4 | KPI: 18 | SOR: 7 | BPI: 3 | KP: 4 | Sag: 4

Q1: 3-2 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 10-0

Gonzaga is a national title contender. Deal with it. Now finally healthy, the Bulldogs are easily one of the most talented teams in the nation and they are proving that night in and night out in the WCC. Many will obviously question their in-conference strength of schedule but this is a team that nobody will want to see in March. They are improving defensively thanks to the return of Killian Tillie and their offense has more weapons than an entire cavalry. Gonzaga could enter the Big Dance as a No. 1 seed and they will have earned it.

Nevada Wolf Pack (19-1, 6-1 MWC)

NET: 18 | KPI: 19 | SOR: 10 | BPI: 17 | KP: 19 | Sag: 15

Q1: 1-0 | Q2: 7-0 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 7-0

Another national title contender from a mid-major conference, Nevada tumbled down seed lines following their lone loss to the season but still has the talent to make a deep run. The Wolf Pack are led by one of the best trios in the country and their depth is also quite impressive. Their offense, though, has faltered as of late and the team is leaning more on its defense than it was earlier in the year. Thankfully, though, they have developed well on that end of the floor and can now win with either their offense or defense.

Buffalo Bulls (17-2, 5-1 MAC)

NET: 23 | KPI: 32 | SOR: 15 | BPI: 22 | KP: 21 | Sag: 38

Q1: 2-1 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 7-0 

Buffalo’s resume took a bit of a hit with their recent loss to Northern Illinois but they are still easily one of the most dangerous mid-majors in the country. Their lack of great wins (just two top-50 wins) will hurt their seeding but I am not worried about them missing the tournament despite coming from a mid-major conference. The narrative surrounding the Bulls as one of the top teams in the country (which is accurate) will help carry them easily into the dance even if they drop a couple of games.

Wofford Terriers (16-4, 8-0 SoCon)

NET: 26 | KPI: 51 | SOR: 32 | BPI: 27 | KP: 41 | Sag: 57

Q1: 1-4 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 8-0

With outstanding rankings for a mid-major by every metric, Wofford is more than deserving of consideration for the NCAA Tournament. Their offense is among the most efficient in the entire nation and they can outshoot just about any opponent. They hold a strong record overall and have a few opportunities left to record solid wins over teams like ETSU, UNCG, and Furman. A two-bid SoCon is definitely a possibility. They also recently avoided disaster by taking down Samford in overtime at the buzzer. This win helped them stay undefeated in conference play at 8-0.

Lipscomb Bisons (15-4, 6-0 ASun)

NET: 45 | KPI: 54 | SOR: 46 | BPI: 53 | KP: 50 | Sag: 70

Q1: 1-2 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 9-0

Another highly-rated mid-major, Lipscomb plays at a frenetic pace but absolutely locks down defensively. They are outstanding on the defensive glass, force turnovers, and often win the free throw game by a considerable margin. The Bisons have won six consecutive games to start undefeated in conference play. And while they might not boast a ton of great wins, they do boast a road victory over TCU. The issue moving forward, though, is that the Atlantic Sun is filled with potential bubble-bursters. Only Liberty is a decent loss if that occurs.

San Francisco Dons (17-3, 5-1 WCC)

NET: 42 | KPI: 64 | SOR: 42 | BPI: 44 | KP: 42 | Sag: 52

Q1: 0-2 | Q2: 1-0 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 10-0

San Francisco’s record is outstanding but they still have a tough road ahead to land an at-large bid. Their metric rankings are solid but just a touch behind most power conference teams on the bubble. In addition, they absolutely need to snag a win over Gonzaga to move into most projected fields and they already lost their home matchup in that series. They still have a road matchup with the Bulldogs and a potential meeting in the WCC Tournament, though.

Utah State Aggies (14-5, 4-2 MWC)

NET: 38 | KPI: 69 | SOR: 68 | BPI: 54 | KP: 39 | Sag: 58

Q1: 1-2 | Q2: 0-3 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 9-0

Utah State only boasts one win over the KenPom top-100 and that is an issue but their predictive metric rankings are pretty solid. In order to make the Big Dance, the Aggies are going to need to roll through Mountain West play, something that is definitely easier said than done. If they drop one or two games over the next few weeks, their home matchup with Nevada on Mar. 2 might become a must-win game.

Fresno State Bulldogs (14-4, 5-1 MWC)

NET: 65 | KPI: 72 | SOR: 58 | BPI: 62 | KP: 59 | Sag: 59

Q1: 1-2 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 9-0

Despite boasting a better record both overall and in conference play (and beating them head-to-head), Fresno State is in a tougher spot than Utah State with regards to making the tournament. Their metric rankings are lower and they have already lost their chance to take down Nevada at home. The Bulldogs will be favored in just about every game for the rest of the conference schedule but they need to handle their business while avoiding bubble-bursters. They have three games left against teams ranked outside of the KenPom top-300 and that is potentially scary.

St. Mary’s Gaels (13-8, 4-2 WCC)

NET: 47 | KPI: 55 | SOR: 99 | BPI: 30 | KP: 35 | Sag: 43

Q1: 0-4 | Q2: 1-2 | Q3: 5-2 | Q4: 7-0

That’s right! Another WCC team is in consideration. St. Mary’s, despite not receiving nearly the same media attention they have in the past, has quietly put together a decent resume. Their quality rankings are tremendous and that puts them into consideration but everything else needs some work. Their SOR, in particular, is barely in the top-100 and that will really hurt them come Selection Sunday. Similar to San Francisco, the Gaels probably need a win over Gonzaga to dance.

That concludes this first edition of the 2019 Bubble Watch. I hope that you enjoyed and if you have a team that you think should have been included, let me know on Twitter: @hardwiredsports. Looking forward to talking college hoops with all of you in the coming months.