NCAA Basketball: Seeking out title contenders by the numbers

3. TOV% and STL%

Of all the more obscure advanced basketball metrics I analyzed, these two were by far and away the most relevant in predicting tournament success. Turnover percentage is a measurement of how often a team turns the ball over relative to their total number of possessions. Steal percentage is a measurement of how often a team is able to steal the ball from their opponents relative to the total number of opponent’s possessions.

Anyone familiar with the four factors of basketball is probably not surprised by the inclusion of these two statistics. It follows a straightforward chain of logic: the less you turn the ball over, the more possessions you have that could end in scoring opportunities. Similarly, the more frequently you steal the ball from the opposition, the more possessions you create for your team.

It also follows that turning the ball over less frequently offers the opposition fewer possessions and thus less scoring opportunities. Likewise, stealing the ball from your opposition results in fewer possessions and scoring opportunities for them. In short, a team wants to maximize their opportunities to score, and minimize that of their opposition – these metrics measure a team’s ability to accomplish that feat.

Some of the top teams with the lowest TOV% and highest STL% (as measured by Sports Reference) include:

• TOV%
  • Virginia
  • Nevada
  • Michigan
  • Gonzaga
  • Wisconsin
  • Buffalo
  • Purdue
  • Iowa State
  • Tennessee
  • Duke
• STL%
  • Duke
  • LSU
  • Auburn
  • Washington
  • Syracuse
  • Kansas State
  • Mississippi State
  • Houston
  • Virginia Tech
  • Gonzaga