Bracketology Bubble Watch: Where do fringe tournament teams stand?
Others to consider
Lead-pipe lock: Gonzaga (2), Nevada (4)
Firmly in the field: Buffalo (6)
Some perspiration: None.
Double the deodorant: Wofford (10), Lipscomb (12), San Francisco (F4O), Utah State (S4O), Hofstra (12), UNC Greensboro (S4O), Belmont (S4O).
Buffalo Bulls (19-2, 7-1 MAC)
NET: 19 | KPI: 26 | SOR: 14 | BPI: 21 | KP: 18 | Sag: 36
Q1: 2-1 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 7-0 | Q4: 7-0
Buffalo is in good shape. They simply need to keep winning games and they will make the tournament. And while each loss in the MAC will hurt, they are not as detrimental as some in other conferences. As long as the Bulls continue to roll through their opposition they should easily make the NCAA Tournament and secure a strong seed.
Wofford Terriers (17-4, 9-0 SoCon)
NET: 31 | KPI: 52 | SOR: 34 | BPI: 34 | KP: 38 | Sag: 55
Q1: 1-4 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 8-0
One of my favorite mid-major resumes, I believe that Wofford has earned an at-large bid if the NCAA Tournament were to start right now. I know that I am in the minority in saying that but I think they have. Clearly one of the top teams in the SoCon, the Terriers are a team that nobody will want to see in March. In order to secure an at-large bid, they need to simply keep winning. I think they can be allowed two total losses for the rest of the year, including the conference tournament, to dance.
Lipscomb Bisons (17-4, 8-0 ASun)
NET: 36 | KPI: 50 | SOR: 35 | BPI: 43 | KP: 36 | Sag: 61
Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 10-0
Lipscomb made its case for an at-large bid in a big way this past week by absolutely eviscerating a very good Liberty team on the road. The Bisons walked away with the 20-point victory in that matchup and then proceeded to skyrocket up many ranking systems. With a very strong overall record, Lipscomb is definitely in the at-large conversation. The issue, though, is that any loss to a team not named Liberty is an absolute bubble-burster in the Atlantic Sun.
San Francisco Dons (17-4, 5-2 WCC)
NET: 46 | KPI: 69 | SOR: 48 | BPI: 42 | KP: 43 | Sag: 53
Q1: 0-2 | Q2: 1-1 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 10-0
When will we give up on San Francisco as a potential at-large team? Well, not yet. Even though they lost to San Diego in their last game, the Dons have a huge couple of games coming up. By this time next week. USF could be firmly in the projected field or completely off the bubble. Next up: at Saint Mary’s, at Gonzaga. Good luck.
Utah State Aggies (16-5, 6-2 MWC)
NET: 40 | KPI: 62 | SOR: 57 | BPI: 52 | KP: 41 | Sag: 58
Q1: 0-2 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 10-0
After falling to 1-2 in MWC play early, Utah State has responded very well with five consecutive victories. And while not a single one of them really boosts their resume, winning is winning. The Aggies are clearly one of the best teams in the Mountain West and their metric rankings put them reasonably close to the bubble. They do, though, need at least one quality win and that means either winning at Fresno State this coming week or taking down Nevada at home in the second-to-last game of the regular season. They also cannot afford any slip-ups along the way.
Hofstra Pride (19-3, 9-0 CAA)
NET: 40 | KPI: 61 | SOR: 50 | BPI: 57 | KP: 62 | Sag: 84
Q1: 0-2 | Q2: 0-0 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 14-0
Hofstra needs to win out until their conference tournament title, in my opinion, to get an at-large bid. There simply are not enough opportunities for high-quality wins on their schedule and suffering two losses in the CAA would be disastrous this season. I love Hofstra this year but their resume probably doesn’t have it unless they reach the CAA tourney title with still only three losses.
UNC Greensboro Spartans (20-3, 9-1 SoCon)
NET: 51 | KPI: 51 | SOR: 33 | BPI: 72 | KP: 89 | Sag: 88
Q1: 0-2 | Q2: 1-2 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 12-0
UNC Greensboro has a legit shot at an at-large bid and a fairly big reason for this is their road opportunities remaining. I know that sounds weird to say but winning on the road in mid-major leagues can be the difference between dancing and watching at home. The Spartans, who already own a decent resume without any quality wins, can really bolster their potential with road matchups against Furman and Wofford left on the schedule. A win or two there and this resume looks a whole lot different.
Belmont Bruins (15-4, 6-2 OVC)
NET: 68 | KPI: 45 | SOR: 38 | BPI: 68 | KP: 65 | Sag: 77
Q1: 2-1 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 2-2 | Q4: 8-0
This is the most underrated resume in the country and I am dead serious. Quite honestly, I’m not sure why there is not more buzz surrounding Belmont as a potential at-large team. Sure, they have a few bad losses on their resume but they also swept Lipscomb and also hold wins over UCLA and Murray State. This goes without saying that they won their fair share of games on the road as well. One of the favorites to win the OVC, in my opinion, Belmont can potentially make an at-large bid happen.
Next. Bracketology Projected Field of 68. dark
That concludes this second edition of the 2019 Bubble Watch. I hope that you enjoyed and if you have a team that you think should have been included, let me know on Twitter: @hardwiredsports. Looking forward to talking college hoops with all of you in the coming months.