AAC Basketball: Can league get 5 teams into Big Dance for first time ever?

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HIGHLAND HEIGHTS, KY – FEBRUARY 25: Jarron Cumberland #34 of the Cincinnati Bearcats shoots a three pointer over Curran Scott #10 of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane during the second half at BB&T Arena on February 25, 2018 in Highland Heights, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

AAC potential NCAA Tournament team resumes

Three 2018-19 American Conference teams are ranked among the top-68 squads in KenPom.com’s rankings. Meanwhile, the league has four teams ranked in ESPN’s BPI top-68. Additionally, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has three AAC program’s in the Tournament in his latest bracketology fixture with UCF being among his last four byes and Temple among the first four out.

More importantly, the conference has four teams ranked in the top-68 of the NCAA’s NET Rankings with Memphis and South Florida just outside the top-68 at No’s 69 and 70. UConn is at No. 74.

The AAC has had 15 teams reach the NCAA Tournament since 2013-14. The conference is 14-14 overall in 28 Tournament games with UConn claiming the national title in 2014. Louisville (2013-14) is the only other team to reach the Sweet 16.

Houston

The Cougars are the highest rated team in the NCAA’s Net rankings as they currently sit at No. 7. They are currently tied with the Bearcats atop of the American standings with the two teams still needing to face each other. UH will host Cincinnati on Feb 10 and then play them on the road in the final game of the regular season on March 10. Houston also has road games against UCF (Feb. 7) and UConn (Feb. 14).

Four of the Cougars’ nine remaining games are at home — where they are 16-0 on the season — with the most important matchups being against USF (Feb. 23) and UCF (March 2). If Houston is able to go at least 6-3 the rest of the way, earning at least split against Cincinnati and UCF, the Cougars should be able to maintain a No.3 or No. 4 seed in the Tournament that they are currently projected to be. UH has two quality wins against Oregon and LSU.

The Cougars are strong defensively, sitting in the top-four in the conference in several categories, including No. 1 in scoring defense at 60.3 points per game. Houston is sixth in the nation in scoring defense, second in both opponents’ field goal percentage and opponents three-point percentage. UH is also 26th in defensive rebounds and 27th in blocks.

Offensively, Houston is led by guards Galen Robinson Jr., Corey Davis Jr., and Armoni Brooks. The Cougars like to shoot the 3-ball with Brooks and Davis Jr. combining to average 6.2 treys a game. UH tops the conference in 3-pointers made and attempted while they are fourth in 3-point percentage. Davis, who led the AAC with 103 triples last year, ranks fifth in the league in 3-point percentage (36%) while Brooks is second at 39.5%. The Cougars are also second in the league in scoring at 77.1 points a game.

Houston has now won 20 or more games in four straight seasons.

Cincinnati

The Bearcats are 25th in the NET rankings. UC is the defending AAC regular season and tournament champions. Cincinnati is second in the conference in scoring margin at 9.9 points a contest as they are averaging 76.6 points and allowing 66.7.

The Bearcats play five of their last nine games on the road, including their next two contests, where they are 4-2 this season and have a plus-19 point differential. UC has tough road games against Memphis (Feb. 7), Houston ( Feb. 10), UConn (Feb. 24), SMU (Feb. 27) and UCF (March 7). They also host Houston, UCF and Memphis.

Junior guard Jarron Cumberland is a star and he leads six Bearcats averaging at least eight points a game with 18.7 points per game. The Bearcats are a good shooting team overall, knocking down 45.9% of their shots from the field and 34.9% from beyond the arc as well as 70.5% of their free throws. They are also a very good offensive rebounding team and they don’t turn the ball over.

But defense is really where UC hangs their hat. They rank 11th in the nation in scoring defense (61.5) as well as 12th in field goals made, 35th in field goal defense (40.4%), 12th in two-point field goals (43.8%) and 32nd in blocked shots. The Bearcats also don’t commit a ton of fouls.

Cincinnati is currently projected as a seventh seed in the NCAA, although the Bearcats have plenty of opportunities to move up the ladder as they have a pretty difficult schedule. However, if UC scuffles down the stretch, the Cats also could fall as they just have one quality win.

UCF

The Knights are looking to receive an NCAA Tournament bid for the first time since 2005. UCF is currently 43rd in the NET rankings.

UCF doesn’t have any quality wins, however, the Knights have important home conference wins over Temple and UConn. On the other hand, they lost to FAU and road setbacks to Wichita State as well as Memphis (by 20). The Knights have a tough road ahead of them as all 10 of their remaining opponents possess winning records, which includes having to face Houston, Cincinnati, and USF twice along with a road trip to Temple. UCF is 2-3 with a minus-13 point differential on the road this year.

The Knights are an experienced team and they have a big front line, featuring 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall and 6-foot-11 Collin Smith. However, guards B.J. Taylor and Aubrey Dawkins are the catalysts for a methodical offense. The Knights, who lead the conference in field goal percentage at 45.2%, take good shots and protect the ball.

UCF, like Houston and Cincinnati, defends well. The Knights are second in the conference in scoring defense and are 26th overall in the country (63.9). They rank in the top-104 in the nation in several other defensive categories.

The Knights are projected to finish with 21 or 22 wins this season, which means that they need to win five or six games the rest of the season. If UCF is able to win five or six of their upcoming games, they would be in good shape to make their fifth-ever trip to the NCAA Tournament.