Bracketology Bubble Watch: Breaking down who remains in at-large contention

Others to consider

Lead-pipe lock: Gonzaga, Nevada

Firmly in the field: Buffalo

Some perspiration: None.

Double the deodorant: Wofford, Utah State, Lipscomb, UNC Greensboro, Belmont.

Buffalo Bulls (19-2, 7-1 MAC)

NET: 23 | KPI: 33 | SOR: 27 | BPI: 23 | KP: 24 | Sag: 40

Q1: 2-1 | Q2: 2-2 | Q3: 7-0 | Q4: 7-0 

Buffalo lost once again during this past week but it still not time to worry about missing the tournament yet. The Bulls are still relatively firmly in just about everyone’s fields and their four Q1/2 wins help as a mid-major. They do not really have a bad loss on their resume and it is reasonable to assume that they will stay in the field. Due to how mid-majors have been treated by the committee in the past, it is not yet time to lock the Bulls. Probably still a couple of weeks away, in fact.

Wofford Terriers (20-4, 12-0 SoCon)

NET: 29 | KPI: 46 | SOR: 29 | BPI: 25 | KP: 31 | Sag: 52

Q1: 2-4 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 8-0

As those of you who have followed my bracketology and bubble watch so far this season know, I love Wofford as an at-large team. They might not hold the high-quality wins that other teams on the bubble have but their record is legit and their metric rankings are in great shape. The SoCon is arguably the most underrated conference in the country and I would not be surprised one bit if they sent two teams to the dance. If I was a fan of a bubble team right now, I would be rooting for Wofford to take the conference tournament title.

Utah State Aggies (18-5, 8-2 MWC)

NET: 33 | KPI: 52 | SOR: 46 | BPI: 49 | KP: 39 | Sag: 55

Q1: 1-2 | Q2: 2-2 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 10-0

Utah State picked up arguably the biggest win of any bubble team this week with their road victory over Fresno State. And while other teams could certainly make argument for picking up the best bubble win (SJU over Marquette, most notably), this one was huge due to the fact that Utah State does not have many other opportunities to secure a strong win. That victory over Fresno State will now go a long way towards the Aggies potentially snagging an at-large bid. Utah State is now one of my last teams IN the Big Dance but they need to avoid a bubble-bursting loss down the stretch.

Lipscomb Bisons (19-4, 10-0 ASun)

NET: 31 | KPI: 56 | SOR: 35 | BPI: 40 | KP: 26 | Sag: 53

Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 1-0 | Q4: 12-0

Lipscomb is red-hot right now as one of the few teams in the nation undefeated in their respective conference. And while many will say that it is easy to dominate in the Atlantic Sun, it would be a mistake to gloss over how well the Bison are playing. By dominating opponent after opponent, Lipscomb is steadily rising in all metrics used by the committee as their efficiency margin is off the charts as of late. The Bison are really taking advantage of every opportunity that they are getting at the moment and could easily creep into the No. 8-10 seed range soon. Watch out.

UNC Greensboro Spartans (21-3, 10-1 SoCon)

NET: 52 | KPI: 59 | SOR: 34 | BPI: 73 | KP: 88 | Sag: 81

Q1: 0-2 | Q2: 1-3 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 12-0

Unlike their SoCon counterparts (Wofford), UNC Greensboro is not rated very high by metrics used by the committee despite an absurd record. Because of this, the Spartans may seem like a longshot to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team but their closing schedule helps. Down the stretch of this season, UNCG will take on three KenPom top-75 teams in hopes of improving their resume. In order to have a shot at an at-large bid, the Spartans likely need to finish the regular season without any more losses (maybe one more).

Belmont Bruins (17-4, 8-2 OVC)

NET: 63 | KPI: 50 | SOR: 39 | BPI: 69 | KP: 60 | Sag: 71

Q1: 2-1 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 2-2 | Q4: 10-0

Belmont, in my opinion, still has the best shot at an at-large bid out of the Ohio Valley. Their metric rankings are fairly solid and it always nice to see a mid-major with a 5-2 record in Q1/2 games. The Bruins have flown under-the-radar throughout this season but they potential is there for them to swoop in for an at-large bid. In order for this to occur, though, they cannot afford another regular season loss as they will not play a single team rated in the KenPom top-250 prior to the conference tournament.

Others maybe knocking on the door: Hofstra, Toledo, New Mexico State, East Tennessee State, and Murray State.

That concludes this third edition of the 2019 Bubble Watch. I hope that you enjoyed and if you have a team that you think should have been included, let me know on Twitter: @hardwiredsports. Looking forward to talking college hoops with all of you in the coming months.