Busting Brackets
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Bracketology Bubble Watch: Breaking down who remains in at-large contention

By Lukas Harkins

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - FEBRUARY 05: Justin Simon #5 of the St. John's Red Storm dunks the ball in the second half against the Marquette Golden Eagles at the Fiserv Forum on February 05, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - FEBRUARY 05: Justin Simon #5 of the St. John's Red Storm dunks the ball in the second half against the Marquette Golden Eagles at the Fiserv Forum on February 05, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
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DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA – JANUARY 05: Clemson Tigers react. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA – JANUARY 05: Clemson Tigers react. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

Atlantic Coast Conference

Lead-pipe lock: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Virginia Tech

Firmly in the field: Florida State

Some perspiration: Syracuse

Double the deodorant: NC State, Clemson.

Florida State Seminoles (17-5, 5-4 ACC)

NET: 27 | KPI: 26 | SOR: 20 | BPI: 19 | KP: 22 | Sag: 21

Q1: 3-3 | Q2: 4-1 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 6-0

Florida State is pretty safe. With a superb record and rankings across all metrics used by the committee, the Seminoles should be an NCAA Tournament team. Their resume, on the whole, is not overwhelmingly impressive but they deserve to be in the No. 6-8 seed range right now with minimal chance of dropping far. As long as FSU continues to take care of business, they will be a lock before too long. They took down Georgia Tech (home) and Syracuse (away) during the past week.

Syracuse Orange (16-7, 7-3 ACC)

NET: 48 | KPI: 31 | SOR: 41 | BPI: 35 | KP: 43 | Sag: 37

Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 4-2 | Q3: 6-2 | Q4: 4-0

Syracuse split their games during this past week to stay relatively solidly in the field even if their position is a bit precarious. The Orange have played very well so far in ACC play and their home loss this week came at the hands of Florida State. Not much to complain about there, especially when you consider they went on the road to defeat Pittsburgh in the prior game of the week. Syracuse should make the tournament fairly easily but let’s not count them out of the bubble conversation just yet. They seemingly always find a way to be sweating on Selection Sunday.

NC State Wolfpack (16-7, 4-6 ACC)

NET: 34 | KPI: 77 | SOR: 32 | BPI: 21 | KP: 42 | Sag: 31

Q1: 1-6 | Q2: 4-0 | Q3: 2-1 | Q4: 9-0 

Despite high rankings in many metrics, NC State is absolutely on the bubble right now. They own just one Q1 victory on the year and their weak non-conference strength of schedule is definitely starting to come to hurt them. As of right now, over half of their wins on the season as classified in Q4 and that might not cut it on Selection Sunday. The Wolfpack are still in most projected fields right now but they are trending down as losers of three straight games.

Clemson Tigers (14-8, 4-5 ACC)

NET: 54 | KPI: 56 | SOR: 57 | BPI: 39 | KP: 45 | Sag: 39

Q1: 0-6 | Q2: 3-2 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 6-0 

Clemson desperately needed to add wins a couple of weeks ago after starting conference play at 1-5 and that is exactly what they have done as of late. The Tigers have now won three straight games while taking advantage of their easiest stretch of schedule in ACC play. And while the schedule certainly gets more challenging from here on out, the team has to be confident and optimistic at this point. While many bracketologists might still be leaving the Tigers out of their projected fields, I just moved them into my “Last Four In” category.

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