Bracketology Bubble Watch: Breaking down who remains in at-large contention
Big East Conference
Lead-pipe lock: Villanova, Marquette
Firmly in the field: None.
Some perspiration: St. John’s
Double the deodorant: Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown.
St. John’s Red Storm (17-6, 5-5 BE)
NET: 39 | KPI: 29 | SOR: 30 | BPI: 44 | KP: 47 | Sag: 42
Q1: 5-4 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 3-1 | Q4: 7-0
On the whole, I think that I am higher on St. John’s than most people. I think that their roster is outstanding, they have second-weekend potential, and have generally underachieved during this season. During this past week, though, the Red Storm completed their season sweep of Marquette by going on the road and downing one of the Big East favorites. That victory really boosted St. John’s resume and they should be an NCAA Tournament team barring a disappointing finish.
Creighton Bluejays (13-10, 4-6 BE)
NET: 54 | KPI: 48 | SOR: 61 | BPI: 46 | KP: 49 | Sag: 48
Q1: 2-8 | Q2: 3-2 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 3-0
Creighton split its two games during this past week but generally moved up with regards to metrics used by the committee. And while many bracketologists still have Creighton out of their field, they jumped into my “Last Four In” in my most recent update by a sliver. With a relatively favorable closing schedule to conference play, the Bluejays could make a run at entering the field relatively solidly over the next month. But as I have said in the past, nothing is a given this season.
Butler Bulldogs (13-10, 4-6 BE)
NET: 56 | KPI: 45 | SOR: 78 | BPI: 50 | KP: 53 | Sag: 45
Q1: 1-6 | Q2: 5-4 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 3-0
Butler desperately needed two things during this past week and they got both of them. First, the Dawgs needed to defend their home court and take down Seton Hall, which they did despite giving up a 17-point lead in the second half. This kept the team firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble (currently my first team out) with time to move up. Additionally, the team had earned a break after playing 10 games in 32 days and they got just that by not playing a midweek game. Now that they have had plenty of time to rest, a monster road game against Georgetown approaches that could put them back in most projected fields.
Seton Hall Pirates (13-9, 4-6 BE)
NET: 67 | KPI: 43 | SOR: 53 | BPI: 63 | KP: 65 | Sag: 56
Q1: 2-5 | Q2: 5-2 | Q3: 3-2 | Q4: 3-0
Seton Hall is quietly collapsing. Just a few weeks ago, the Pirates definitely looked like an NCAA Tournament team at 11-3 (2-0 BE) with wins over Maryland and Kentucky. And while they are still holding onto those crucial wins, they have steadily dropped since then. Seton Hall has now lost six of its last eight games and they are falling quickly in my bracketology while others still have them in the field. Outside of those two crucial wins, there just isn’t much on the resume and they are falling fast in the rankings used by the committee.
Georgetown Hoyas (15-8, 5-5 BE)
NET: 73 | KPI: 58 | SOR: 67 | BPI: 79 | KP: 77 | Sag: 61
Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 4-3 | Q3: 2-2 | Q4: 7-0
In contrast to Seton Hall, Georgetown has slowly moved into the bubble conversation. Their non-conference slate, while far from elite, has aged somewhat decently and they sit at .500 in Big East play. Because of this, it might be time to start thinking about the Hoyas as a possible tournament team. They might not rate highly in any system used by the committee but that will change if they manage to finish around 10-10 (including conference tournament) in the Big East. This will be an interesting team to follow, especially if they defend home court and knock off Butler this weekend.