Bracketology Bubble Watch: Breaking down who remains in at-large contention
Southeastern Conference
Lead-pipe lock: Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State
Firmly in the field: Auburn
Some perspiration: Ole Miss
Double the deodorant: Alabama, Florida, Arkansas
Auburn Tigers (16-6, 5-4 SEC)
NET: 20 | KPI: 36 | SOR: 36 | BPI: 11 | KP: 14 | Sag: 15
Q1: 1-5 | Q2: 6-1 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 4-0
Auburn put together two strong home performances during this past week while defeating Alabama and Florida within the span of four days. On the whole, the Tigers own one of the more underwhelming resumes in the country and predictive metrics love them as a top-15 team in the country. Given this, it seems likely that Auburn will be underseeded in March with a chance for a big run. They should easily be an NCAA Tournament team and they are very close to joining the lock group.
Ole Miss Rebels (15-7, 5-4 SEC)
NET: 41 | KPI: 41 | SOR: 42 | BPI: 51 | KP: 46 | Sag: 47
Q1: 3-7 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 7-0
Ole Miss might have peaked a bit too soon. After starting the season 13-2 (3-0 SEC), many started to put Ole Miss quite high in their bracketology fields. Since then, though, they have lost five of their last seven games and are currently trending down. And while they are still firmly in most projected brackets, the Rebels will play three of their next four games on the road and they could keep slipping. Thankfully, though, Ole Miss is yet to record a bad loss.
Alabama Crimson Tide (14-8, 5-4 SEC)
NET: 45 | KPI: 35 | SOR: 45 | BPI: 48 | KP: 48 | Sag: 44
Q1: 2-5 | Q2: 6-1 | Q3: 3-2 | Q4: 3-0
Alabama has alternated wins and losses for the past couple of weeks to remain firmly on the bubble. On the whole, I am a bit higher on the Crimson Tide than most but they are definitely on the fence when it comes to making the tournament. Their metrics are quite solid across the board and they have played well throughout the last few weeks. With three of their next four games on the road, Alabama just needs to keep operating at a high level to improve their profile.
Florida Gators (12-10, 4-5 SEC)
NET: 43 | KPI: 62 | SOR: 68 | BPI: 36 | KP: 37 | Sag: 36
Q1: 1-8 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 3-1 | Q4: 5-0
Just when we start to think that Florida has turned a corner and is playing up to the standards set by their predictive metrics, they turn around and struggle. That was once again the case during this past week when the Gators dropped back-to-back games to Kentucky and Auburn (nothing really wrong with that) to fall out of most projected fields. With a record that is barely floating above .500, Florida definitely has work to do. That work, though, will need to be done outside of Gainesville as they will play three of their next four on the road.
Arkansas Razorbacks (14-8, 5-4 SEC)
NET: 60 | KPI: 47 | SOR: 69 | BPI: 70 | KP: 52 | Sag: 51
Q1: 1-5 | Q2: 2-1 | Q3: 7-2 | Q4: 4-0
One of the most underrated bubble teams in the nation, Arkansas has somewhat quietly crept up the rankings in recent weeks. They have won their last four conference games and added a monster resume-builder last weekend by winning on the road over LSU. That win put the Razorbacks firmly on the bubble but with some work to do to really make the field. And just like every other SEC bubble team, they will need to make it happen away from home with three of their next four coming on the road. Arkansas is currently on the outside looking in.