Bracketology Bubble Watch: Who is shooting for an at-large bid?
Others to consider
Lead-pipe lock: Gonzaga, Nevada
Firmly in the field: Buffalo
Some perspiration: None.
Double the deodorant: Utah State, Lipscomb, Belmont, Toledo
Buffalo Bulls (21-3, 9-2 MAC)
NET: 23 | KPI: 25 | SOR: 24 | BPI: 25 | KP: 24 | Sag: 36
Q1: 1-1 | Q2: 4-1 | Q3: 9-1 | Q4: 6-0
Despite struggling a bit as of late, Buffalo should still make the NCAA Tournament relatively safely. I think, on the whole, people are starting to come around to the idea that the MAC is better than anyone has given it credit for and other bubble teams are not exactly raging ahead to take Buffalo’s spot. In terms of metric rankings, the Bulls are still in great shape as only one system (Sagarin) has them rated outside of the top-25. In the end, I think it is fair to say that this team will be dancing in March. Current projected seed: No. 7.
Utah State Aggies (19-6, 9-3 MWC)
NET: 36 | KPI: 56 | SOR: 57 | BPI: 54 | KP: 42 | Sag: 58
Q1: 1-2 | Q2: 2-2 | Q3: 4-2 | Q4: 10-0
Utah State is in a tough spot. They have a great overall record but just about everything else on their resume is quite average. And then you consider that they only have three total Q1/2 wins. That really just isn’t going to cut it on Selection Sunday unless they are able to put together an awesome end to the regular-season and own a tremendous W-L record. This means that the Aggies will probably need to win out over the course of the rest of the regular season in order to have a shot. And while they will be massive favorites in most of these games, they cannot afford a slip-up (such as at Boise State) and they will have to find a way to beat Nevada at home. If that happens, they will be in decent shape heading into the MWC Tournament. Current projected seed: OUT (First Four Out).
Lipscomb Bisons (20-5, 11-1 ASun)
NET: 37 | KPI: 58 | SOR: 39 | BPI: 43 | KP: 40 | Sag: 59
Q1: 2-3 | Q2: 2-2 | Q3: 2-0 | Q4: 12-0
Lipscomb suffered its first conference loss this week but that should not destroy their at-large hopes. Fans might not know it but their opponent in that game, Liberty, is a darn good team and one that might garner some at-large attention as well down the road. For now, though, Lipscomb just needs to focus on winning out the rest of their regular season in order to have a shot at an at-large bid. In my opinion, the Bison would land an at-large bid if Selection Sunday was this weekend but the potential for bubble-bursting losses in the Atlantic Sun is high. Liberty is really the only “quality” loss. Current projected seed: No. 11 as an automatic bid (would still be in as an at-large).
Belmont Bruins (20-4, 11-2 OVC)
NET: 64 | KPI: 49 | SOR: 35 | BPI: 66 | KP: 67 | Sag: 67
Q1: 2-1 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 2-2 | Q4: 12-0
Belmont just keeps going about its business. Since losing at Jacksonville State in overtime on Jan. 17, the Bruins have won eight consecutive games and they firmly belong in the at-large discussion. Their resume is not particularly great at the moment but I think that they should win every game remaining on their regular-season schedule. And if the Bruins enter Selection Sunday with just five losses (say they lose in the OVC Tourney final to Murray State), they should not be overlooked as a candidate for an at-large bid. Keep in mind that this team swept Lipscomb in a home-and-home this year (yes, they played twice in non-conference). Current projected seed: No. 12 as an automatic bid (would be Next Four Out as an at-large candidate).
Toledo Rockets (20-4, 8-3 MAC)
NET: 57 | KPI: 46 | SOR: 52 | BPI: 57 | KP: 52 | Sag: 70
Q1: 0-1 | Q2: 2-0 | Q3: 8-3 | Q4: 9-0
Toledo’s resume is not all that impressive at this point in time but they have a massive opportunity coming up. Should the Rockets defend their home court and take down Buffalo this weekend, they should be looked at much more seriously. They have only four losses on the season and should be able to finish the regular season with at most five losses. Their lack of quality wins may come back to hurt them but there are opportunities in the MAC Tournament to snag quality wins. This one over Buffalo might be a must-have to stay relevant, though. Current projected seed: OUT.
Bracketology Projected Field of 68. dark. Next
That concludes this fourth edition of the 2019 Bubble Watch. I hope that you enjoyed and if you have a team that you think should have been included, let me know on Twitter: @hardwiredsports. Looking forward to talking college hoops with all of you in the coming months.