Bracketology Bubble Watch: Who is shooting for an at-large bid?
Southeastern Conference
Lead-pipe lock: Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State
Firmly in the field: Auburn, Ole Miss
Some perspiration:
Double the deodorant: Alabama, Florida, Arkansas
Auburn Tigers (16-8, 5-6 SEC)
NET: 23 | KPI: 40 | SOR: 40 | BPI: 12 | KP: 17 | Sag: 16
Q1: 1-6 | Q2: 5-2 | Q3: 5-0 | Q4: 4-0
According to metrics, Auburn is a wayyyy better team than their resume indicates. With an average quality ranking of 15.0, this team should be able to post a record much better than just 6-8 in Q1/2 games but that is where they stand. Because of this, the Tigers will either be under or overseeded depending on if you value quality or resume metrics more. I have been a believer in this team throughout this season but it is hard to ignore how they have struggled in big games. Auburn should safely make the dance but this is just a really weird resume. Current projected seed: No. 8.
Ole Miss Rebels (17-7, 7-4 SEC)
NET: 33 | KPI: 35 | SOR: 33 | BPI: 44 | KP: 36 | Sag: 40
Q1: 4-7 | Q2: 3-0 | Q3: 4-0 | Q4: 6-0
Ole Miss is back. After dropping four straight games and falling down bracketology seed lists in prior weeks, the Rebels have now won three in a row and they capped off this streak with a big-time road win over Auburn. Ole Miss has been one of the biggest surprises in the nation so far this season and they currently sit with a 7-4 record in SEC play. With three relatively easy games coming up (vs. Missouri, at South Carolina, vs. Georgia), there is a legit shot that the Rebels climb into “lock” zone very soon before a difficult closing schedule. Current projected seed: No. 8.
Alabama Crimson Tide (15-9, 6-5 SEC)
NET: 45 | KPI: 38 | SOR: 42 | BPI: 53 | KP: 48 | Sag: 47
Q1: 2-6 | Q2: 6-1 | Q3: 4-2 | Q4: 3-0
Alabama is sitting right near the cutline at this point in time. Head coach Avery John’s team has stayed in the field for the most part throughout this season but they have never really reached solid ground. During this past week, the Crimson Tide once again split their matchups, winning on the road over Vanderbilt before falling to Mississippi State (also on the road). With a very 50/50 stretch approaching to close the regular season, we will likely be talking about Bama on the bubble right up until Selection Sunday. Current projected seed: No. 10 (First Four Byes)
Florida Gators (13-11, 5-6 SEC)
NET: 40 | KPI: 67 | SOR: 63 | BPI: 36 | KP: 38 | Sag: 33
Q1: 1-9 | Q2: 3-1 | Q3: 4-1 | Q4: 5-0
Despite an underwhelming resume, on the whole, Florida has hung around the bubble for the majority of this season. And while they might be on the outside looking in for many bracketologists, they just need to catch a little bit of fire in order to move back into the field. Most notably, the Gators could desperately use a Q1 win or two down the closing stretch of this season. Of course, snagging those will not be easy but they have back-to-back opportunities coming up in this week as they go on the road to take on Alabama and LSU. If they just win of those two games, this entire resume looks different. Current projected seed: OUT (First Four Out).
Arkansas Razorbacks (14-10, 5-6 SEC)
NET: 67 | KPI: 53 | SOR: 77 | BPI: 72 | KP: 57 | Sag: 49
Q1: 1-5 | Q2: 2-3 | Q3: 7-2 | Q4: 4-0
Arkansas is a long shot to make the NCAA Tournament but they are still within striking distance. The issue, though, is that they just suffered two pretty disastrous road losses to South Carolina and Missouri. And while losing away from home is never really an issue, it is when they come to two of the worst teams in the conference. This is especially true when you consider the Razorbacks entered that road trip riding a three-game winning streak and some serious momentum. They have now fallen back to needing to play very well and receive some help to dance. Current projected seed: OUT.