Bracketology Bubble Watch: Seton Hall, Utah State sitting right on the edge
Big East Conference
Lead-pipe lock: Villanova, Marquette
Firmly in the field: None.
Some perspiration: None.
Double the deodorant: St. John’s, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Georgetown, Xavier.
St. John’s Red Storm (20-9, 8-8 BE)
NET: 59 | KPI: 30 | SOR: 42 | BPI: 55 | KP: 63 | Sag: 54
Q1: 6-4 | Q2: 4-3 | Q3: 2-2 | Q4: 8-0
St. John’s really does not want me to move them into the “lock” category. Every single time I come close to moving the Red Storm up in this piece, they find a way to post a head-scratching loss. This time around, SJU dropped a home game to Xavier. Given how well the Musketeers have been playing lately, this is not an altogether disastrous loss but it keeps St. John’s on the bubble. With that said, though, I still believe that the Red Storm are safe with regards to making the tournament for the moment. Their metric rankings, though, took a major hit in the loss to Xavier. Even though they are among the lowest-rated KenPom teams in at-large conversation, this team is probably just one (or two) more wins from locking up a bid. Their last two games, though….are both on the road. Current Bracketology Status: No. 11 seed (Last Four Byes).
Seton Hall Pirates (16-11, 7-8 BE)
NET: 64 | KPI: 42 | SOR: 52 | BPI: 63 | KP: 61 | Sag: 54
Q1: 4-6 | Q2: 6-3 | Q3: 3-2 | Q4: 3-0
Seton Hall has a tricky resume to really analyze. Their Q3 losses definitely drag down their overall seeding potential but they also hold an outstanding Q1/2 record that keeps them in most projected fields. With that said, though, the Pirates have dropped two consecutive games down the closing stretch and their remaining schedule is brutal. With just three conference games remaining, head coach Kevin Willard’s team still has to play at Georgetown before returning home to face Villanova and Marquette. There are, though, two ways of looking at this. For starters, they could easily go 0-3 and drop out of tournament contention. Easily. At the same rate, though, those two home games represent massive opportunities to reach solid enough position where the BET only matters for seeding. Current Bracketology Status: No. 12 seed (Last Four In).
Butler Bulldogs (15-13, 6-9 BE)
NET: 54 | KPI: 48 | SOR: 79 | BPI: 52 | KP: 57 | Sag: 48
Q1: 2-8 | Q2: 5-4 | Q3: 5-1 | Q4: 3-0
I said last week that Butler needed to win three of its last four games to be in decent position for an at-large bid and that is still the case. The issue, though, is that their margin for error has been dropped to zero after falling at home to Providence (in overtime). I know that many fans have already jumped off the bandwagon down the stretch of this season but a road win over Villanova this weekend would put the Dawgs right back in the thick of the race. Kamar Baldwin has been playing at an extremely high level as of late and he just needs more help. Butler’s metrics and records are still good enough to keep them in contention with opportunities to move up the rankings. If Butler falls at ‘Nova, though, they will need a deep run in their conference tournament, if not a BET title, to dance. Current Bracketology Status: First Four Out.
Creighton Bluejays (15-13, 6-9 BE)
NET: 57 | KPI: 50 | SOR: 64 | BPI: 45 | KP: 51 | Sag: 49
Q1: 2-10 | Q2: 6-3 | Q3: 3-0 | Q4: 3-0
After back-to-back wins over DePaul (away) and Georgetown (home), Creighton is right back in the thick of the bubble race. This might come as a surprise to those who wrote off the Bluejays a few weeks ago but they are still in the conversation. Head coach Greg McDermott’s team has a solid resume on the whole for the state of this bubble and their lack of bad losses really helps. Additionally, their closing schedule is relatively favorable with home games against Providence and DePaul left to go with a massive road opportunity against Marquette. It is not yet time to count out Creighton. Current Bracketology Status: First Four Out.
Georgetown Hoyas (17-11, 7-8 BE)
NET: 72 | KPI: 55 | SOR: 66 | BPI: 74 | KP: 71 | Sag: 59
Q1: 3-6 | Q2: 5-3 | Q3: 2-2 | Q4: 7-0
Georgetown will need a strong finish in order to make the NCAA Tournament. On the whole, the Hoyas have a favorable record compared to the rest of the bubble but their two Q3 losses and weak overall metrics drag down their Big Dance potential. With that said, though, they are within striking distance with some big opportunities coming up to close the season. The Hoyas round out the regular season with matchups against Seton Hall (home), DePaul (away), and Marquette (away). They will need to go at least 2-1 to stay in consideration heading into the BET while a 3-0 finish would put them right near the cutline if not in the projected field. Current Bracketology Status: OUT.
Xavier Musketeers (16-13, 8-8 BE)
NET: 71 | KPI: 54 | SOR: 68 | BPI: 74 | KP: 71 | Sag: 59
Q1: 3-8 | Q2: 6-2 | Q3: 1-3 | Q4: 6-0
Oh hello. After dropping out of all consideration just a few weeks back after starting Big East play at 3-8, the Xavier Musketeers have risen from the ashes to join the bubble party in the conference. In general, their metrics simply do not compete with other bubble teams at the moment but this is a team to monitor. Xavier is playing better than just about anyone else near the cutline right now and they could easily keep their hot streak going into the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers might be a long shot at this point in time but I am monitoring their movement. Head coach Travis Steele’s team finishes the season with meetings against Butler (away) and St. John’s (home). Current Bracketology Status: OUT.