Busting Brackets
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Bracketology 2019: Most likely bid thieves heading into March Madness

By Tristan Freeman

NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 10: The Villanova Wildcats celebrate their overtime win over the Providence Friars during the championship game of the Big East Basketball Tournament at Madison Square Garden on March 10, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MARCH 10: The Villanova Wildcats celebrate their overtime win over the Providence Friars during the championship game of the Big East Basketball Tournament at Madison Square Garden on March 10, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /
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BOISE, ID – MARCH 17: Montell McRae #1 of the Buffalo Bulls reacts during the second half against the Kentucky Wildcats in the second round of the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Taco Bell Arena on March 17, 2018 in Boise, Idaho. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
BOISE, ID – MARCH 17: Montell McRae #1 of the Buffalo Bulls reacts during the second half against the Kentucky Wildcats in the second round of the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Taco Bell Arena on March 17, 2018 in Boise, Idaho. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

3. MAC

Safe at-large team: Buffalo

Most likely bid thieves: Toledo and Bowling Green

Credit to Buffalo for living up to preseason expectations, going 26-3 (14-2) on the season so far and heading to the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens next. But to guarantee themselves a really good seed, they’ll have to win out and remain with just three total losses.

There are a few teams in the MAC who’ll challenge them for sure in the next couple of weeks. One of them will be Bowling Green, who they face in the regular season finale. The Falcons upset the Bulls at home earlier in the season with a 92-88 win. That and a two-point loss at Northern Illinois are the only conference blemishes for Nate Oat’s team.

But the biggest threat to Buffalo may be the projected conference tournament finals against Toledo, who’s third in the MAC with an 11-5 record. With an overall record of 23-6 combined with some good metrics and an overall weak bubble, the Rockets have found themselves on the bubble in their own way. However, it’ll probably take the automatic bid for Toledo to go dancing.

It’s possible, with Buffalo struggling to put them away in the second matchup (88-82 win) after scoring 110 total points in the first victory. The Bulls are the MAC Tournament favorite but all it takes is one bad night, along with a capable team to capitalize off of it. This conference has a few who can do just that.

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