Butler basketball has underachieved a bit so far this season. How can the Dawgs succeed in a rivalry matchup with Xavier on Senior Night?
At-large hopes are very slim for Butler basketball right now. Since sitting right near the NCAA Tournament cutline a couple of weeks ago, the Dawgs have dropped three consecutive games (one in overtime) and they have fallen off of the bubble. There is still the potential that they could dance as an at-large team by not losing until the Big East Tournament final and gaining some help from others but that seems unlikely. With that said, though, each game is still incredibly important.
Leading off this group of remaining games is a home matchup against Xavier. Arguably one of the most anticipated games of the entire year for the fanbase, Butler will not only take on their rivals in this matchup but it will also be Senior Night for two well-respected members of the team. Both Nate Fowler and Paul Jorgensen have been around for some incredible moments over the past few years and they have brought different things to the team.
Fowler, a 6-foot-10 big man that spent all four years in the program, has always been a consistent member of the roster. He might not have ever developed into a star but it is hard to argue with his impact on the court. Fowler has always been a strong 3-point shooting threat for his size and also seems to be in great position defensively more often than not. He has never been a full-time starter for the team but has played over 10 minutes per game in each of his last three seasons.
Jorgensen, on the other hand, is a 6-foot-2 energizer bunny. One of the more exciting players on the team over the past two seasons, “Prince Harry of Harlem” seems to always ignite the Hinkle Fieldhouse crowd with his insane range from deep and confidence in transition. Oh, and he also hit one of the most memorable shots in recent regular-season history for the Dawgs. Seriously…put. this. on. replay. forever.
These two players epitomize Butler University in so many ways and hopefully they will be able to go out on a strong note. I understand that both are somewhat polarizing figures on the court for the fanbase but no one should argue with the effort they bring to the court and their actions off the court also represent the school very well.
With regards to this upcoming matchup with Xavier, it will not be easy to pull out a win. Even though the crowd will be into it as it is the last regular-season home game of the year, the Musketeers have been playing at a very high level over the past few weeks. In fact, while the Dawgs have dropped four of their past five games, the Musketeers have won five straight and are trending towards potentially making the NCAA Tournament out of nowhere. With that said, though, not much would make Butler fans happier than killing those hopes.
In order for the Dawgs to come away victorious in this matchup, they will need to shoot the ball better from three. Well-known as a team that has the potential to light it up from deep, Butler has struggled tremendously from deep as of late and it has resulted in poor performances on the whole. In fact, Butler’s three best shooters (Sean McDermott, Jordan Tucker, Jorgensen) have shot just 4-for-30 from beyond the arc in their last two games. This absolutely needs to change in order to win this game.
Additionally, Butler should be able to win the turnover battle in this matchup. On the whole, Butler is much more careful with their possessions than Xavier and forcing a significant advantage in this facet of the game could offset Xavier’s ability to dominate the glass with their physicality. Xavier is one of the most physically imposing teams in the conference and that makes them a very tough matchup for Butler. In the first meeting between these two teams, Butler lost both the turnover (-1) and the rebounding battles (-11). They need to find a way to win one of those in this matchup and that seems likely to be with regards to limiting and forcing turnovers.
Lastly, the Dawgs will need to find a way to keep the Musketeers out of the paint as much as possible. While Xavier does have a fair amount of shooting on its roster, they are clearly at their best when they can control the paint both with scoring and rebounding. For the season, Xavier is attempting the vast majority of their shots from inside the arc and Butler will hopefully force them out of the paint. That is a tall task, though, considering Butler’s overall lack of rim protection.
On the whole, I think that Butler is due to escape its recent struggles from beyond the arc. When this team shoots the ball well from distance, they are a hard team to beat and seniors Jorgensen/Fowler will look end their careers at Hinkle Fieldhouse on a high note. Oh, and it’s never a bad thing to defeat Xavier. Time to start the preparations for MSG with a big home win over the rivals.
Final Prediction: Butler Bulldogs – 78, Xavier Musketeers 74.