Busting Brackets
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OVC Basketball: Belmont, Murray State favorites for 2019 conference tournament

By Logan Butts

AUBURN, ALABAMA - DECEMBER 22: Ja Morant #12 of the Murray State Racers goes up for a dunk against the Auburn Tigers at Auburn Arena on December 22, 2018 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
AUBURN, ALABAMA - DECEMBER 22: Ja Morant #12 of the Murray State Racers goes up for a dunk against the Auburn Tigers at Auburn Arena on December 22, 2018 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – MARCH 8: Led by committee chairman Mark Hollis (3rd from L), the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – MARCH 8: Led by committee chairman Mark Hollis (3rd from L), the NCAA Basketball Tournament Selection Committee meets on Wednesday afternoon, March 8, 2017 in New York City. The committee is gathered in New York to begin the five-day process of selecting and seeding the field of 68 teams for the NCAA MenÕs Basketball Tournament. The final bracket will be released on Sunday evening following the completion of conference tournaments. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images) /

OVC Bracketology

Belmont has the best case for earning an at-large bid, but Murray State isn’t too far behind.

As of March 4, the Bruins sit at 45th in the net with a 2-1 Q1 record, 3-1 against Q2, 2-1 against Q3, and 17-0 against Q4.

Our bracketologist, Lukas Harkins, has Belmont slated in as a 12-seed currently. They’d be right around the cutoff line if they weren’t favored to win the OVC Tournament. Any loss other than to Murray State in the final would be too damaging.

The Racers have a 52 net rating, but their best win is at Austin Peay. Losing close outings to at Alabama (5) and at Auburn (6) proved to be costly since Murray has no top-100 wins. However, they also have no bad losses, with a perfect 22-0 record against Q3 and Q4.

If Murray were to win the title, a 12 or 13 seed would be most likely. Jacksonville State and Austin Peay could earn a 14 or 15 seed. Anyone else would be a 16 seed.