UNC Basketball: 2019 Keys against Louisville in ACC Tournament Quarterfinals

3. Beat the Cardinals in the paint

UNC and Louisville’s second meeting this season was drastically different from their first.

January’s game saw the Cardinals forcing the Heels to fire hopeless three after hopeless three, forcing them into creating long bounces and capitalizing on rebounds that UNC wasn’t in position to corral. Louisville out-rebounded UNC 40–31 in this meeting, getting clean looks in the paint en route to a robust 60.7 two-point percentage.

February’s game presented a different story. It was in this matchup that the Cardinals would find themselves on the wrong end of the paint battle, with UNC recording signficantly more rebounds (49–31, including 18 offensive boards), second-chance points (18 to three) and points in the paint (38–26). Both Luke Maye (20 points, 11 rebounds) and Cam Johnson (19 points, 10 rebounds) finished with double-doubles, having their way inside the arc against an outmatched Louisville defense. Garrison Brooks also found success, finishing with 12 points and four rebounds in 24 minutes after only playing 13 minutes due to foul trouble in the first meeting.

UNC should stay the course on Thursday in order to see similar results. Specifically, UNC’s scorers should target Louisville’s weak spots to manufacture cleaner looks around the basket

Drawing 6-foot-11 center Malik Williams should be the Heels’ top priority. He’s not much of a scorer or rebounder, but his combination of size and length makes him a serviceable paint-deterrent and rim protector. According to Synergy Sports, Williams ranks in the 79th percentile defending post-ups (0.667 PPP) and in the 75th percentile defending isolations (0.600 PPP), effectively using his frame to prevent opponents from scoring.

Because of his strengths, though, UNC’s player placement and Carolina break actions should be utilized against him to draw him away from the rim. Hi-low sets between Luke Maye and Garrison Brooks could theoretically draw him out, taking the Cardinal’s tallest player out of the picture and enabling Maye/Brooks to either make entry passes to other post players and cutters around the rim.

Outside of Williams, UNC should look to take advantage of Steven Enoch in the pick-and-roll (50th percentile) and Jordan Nwora in the post.

Matching up Brooks with Enoch gives Louisville a size advantage down low but a mobility disadvantage everywhere else, as the former shows much more lateral quickness and vertical athleticism than his frontcourt opponent does. UNC went to the pick-and-roll at times in both games, with one such action resulting in Brooks finishing a lob while leaving Enoch completely out of the play due to the traffic he was unable to navigate.

For Nwora, he’s much better suited defending out on the perimeter against wings than he is banging bodies with forwards and centers in the post, where he ranks in the 29th percentile defensively according to Synergy Sports. As such, it would seem wise to hunt mismatches through the Carolina break and box sets, with UNC ideally pitting Maye against the smaller and outmatched Nwora.

Besides the aforementioned schematic approach to scoring in the paint, the Heels should continue its traditional approach to crashing the glass and controlling the rebounding battle, an area of play that they excel at compared to the rest of the nation. Interior offense, determined rebounding, and the continuation of UNC’s improved defense should lead the Heels to winning the paint battle on Thursday. And, if they manage to get Kenny Williams going from deep while shutting out Nwora and Sutton, they should advance to the next round of the ACC Tournament, too.