Bracketology 2019: Buy or sell mid-majors currently on the bubble

By Logan Butts | Mar 16, 2019

CHARLOTTE, NC - MARCH 16: The Lipscomb Bisons bench reacts at the start of their game against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Spectrum Center on March 16, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) /

2 of 4

RENO, NEVADA – JANUARY 02: Diogo Brito #24 of the Utah State Aggies jumps between Jordan Brown #21 of the Nevada Wolf Pack and Jazz Johnson #22 of the Nevada Wolf Pack to take a shot at the basket at Lawlor Events Center on January 02, 2019 in Reno, Nevada. (Photo by Jonathan Devich/Getty Images) /

Toledo | 24-7 (13-5 in the MAC)

62 NET | 64 SOR | 59 KenPom

The MAC has been a strong league all season long, which normally bodes well for mid-major bubble cases. But in this scenario, it really just ended up meaning there was one great team – Buffalo – and several solid-but-not-tournament-worthy teams.

Toledo had the MAC’s best case for a two-bid league, but the Rockets bowed out in their first conference game. That, combined with the zero Q1 wins after two losses to the Bulls and five Q3 losses, probably spells doom for Toledo.

Verdict: SELL

Utah State | 25-6 (15-3 in the MWC)

30 NET | 37 SOR | 38 KenPom

At this point, I think Utah State is just about a lock. The Aggies win at Nevada pretty much sealed the deal, barring a catastrophic MWC Tournament loss.

They have no bad losses and a winning record (4-2) vs Q1. The loss at San Diego State is questionable (even though it qualifies as a Q2), but the rest are against Houston, Nevada, Arizona State, Fresno State, and BYU.

Plus, most of the key metrics have them in the top-40.

Verdict: BUY

Home/Bracketology