March Madness 2019: 10 most likely first-round upsets in the NCAA Tournament
By Brian Rauf
South Region
(12) Oregon Ducks over (5) Wisconsin Badgers
The first 12-5 upset on the list doesn’t feel like it because it’s between two power conference schools, but I view this as a virtual lock.
Oregon is perhaps the hottest team in the country while Wisconsin is just 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Badgers also struggle to score and the Ducks have kept seven of their last eight opponents to 61 points or fewer.
This has the feel of a defensive slugfest and I trust Oregon’s offense more than I do Wisconsin’s. By a lot.
(13) UC Irvine Anteaters over (4) Kansas State Wildcats
K-State has essentially the same team that went to the Elite Eight last year but I don’t think they’ll win a game this time around.
Why? Big man Dean Wade is dealing with a foot injury. He’s the Wildcats’ best player and takes their offense from below average to respectable. Without him, K-State has a tendency to get stuck in the mud.
UC Irvine has the size to match up with them and are the kind of defensive team that can really limit an opponent. Given K-State’s struggles on that end without Wade, particularly with their perimeter shooting, the Anteaters – who haven’t lost since Jan. 16 – will take advantage and pull off the shocker.
(14) Old Dominion Monarchs over (3) Purdue Boilermakers
Yeah, I think the South Region is going to get weird.
Old Dominion won both the Conference USA and tournament titles on the strength of their defense, which ranks in the top 50 nationally and in the top 15 in effective field goal percentage defense. B.J. Stith and Ahmad Caver, both of whom average over 16 points per game, are also one of the nation’s most underrated backcourts.
Meanwhile, Purdue has been struggling of late and are only 7-7 against NCAA Tournament teams this year. Carsen Edwards has shot below 25 percent from the field in four of the Boilermakers’ last seven games and Ryan Cline is the only other player averaging at least nine points per game. If Edwards is off again, the Boilermakers will go down.