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UNC Basketball: 2019 NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional Preview

By Trevor Marks

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - MARCH 14: The North Carolina Tar Heels bench reacts to a three pointer against the Louisville Cardinals during their game in the quarterfinal round of the 2019 Men's ACC Basketball Tournament at Spectrum Center on March 14, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - MARCH 14: The North Carolina Tar Heels bench reacts to a three pointer against the Louisville Cardinals during their game in the quarterfinal round of the 2019 Men's ACC Basketball Tournament at Spectrum Center on March 14, 2019 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
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PITTSBURGH, PA – MARCH 15: Head coach Tim Cluess of the Iona Gaels yells to his team during the first half of the game against the Duke Blue Devils in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at PPG PAINTS Arena on March 15, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – MARCH 15: Head coach Tim Cluess of the Iona Gaels yells to his team during the first half of the game against the Duke Blue Devils in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at PPG PAINTS Arena on March 15, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /

Round of 64

(1) UNC vs. (16) Iona 

Despite 16-seed UMBC’s historic upset over 1-seed Virginia in last year’s NCAA Tournament, there’s just no reason to realistically look at any of this year’s crop of bottom seeds and believe that any lone squad is capable of accomplishing this same, especially not Iona (17-15) against UNC. This isn’t meant to be disrespectful, it’s just the reality of the Tournament.

So, instead of presenting a case for how Iona could make this game close or for how UNC needs to be careful, I’ll make a case for the Tar Heels covering whatever the game spread will be (ESPN currently has it as -24.0, which could move either way depending on betting action between now and the game’s tip).

UNC ranks sixth on KenPom with the nation’s seventh-best adjusted offense and tenth-best adjusted defense. The Heels are a top-25 rebounding team in terms of offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, hold opponents to a below-league-average 48.3 effective field goal percentage, play at a blistering pace, and boast NBA-talent (Coby White, Cameron Johnson, Nassir Little) and size (average player height of 78.5 inches, nineteenth in the nation).

Iona, on the other hand, ranks 197th on KenPom with a meager offense (132nd) and defense (275th). The Gaels rank as a bottom-100 rebounding team on both ends of the floor, are porous when defending the perimeter (opposing teams shoot 36.8 3P%), and have 11.4 percent of their field goal attempts blocked by their opponents.

We’re looking at a major blowout, per usual. So, whatever the spread ends up being: Take the over.

(Sorry, Iona.)

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