UNC Basketball: 2019 NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional Preview
By Trevor Marks
Sweet 16, Part One
(1) UNC vs.
- (5) Auburn / (12) New Mexico State
- (4) Kansas / (13) Northeastern
Auburn
Of all teams entering the Tournament, Auburn stands as one of the hottest high-majors after running off eight straight games to take home the SEC Championship, with four wins over Tournament teams in that same span (Mississippi State, Florida, and Tennessee twice). In a conference featuring two seeds in Kentucky and Tennessee, the Tigers might just be the fiercest SEC team in this year’s Tournament, as they’ve hit their stride at the perfect time.
Jared Harper (15.2 points, 5.7 assists), Bryce Brown (15.8 points) and Chuma Okeke (11.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 1.2 blocks) are the catalysts for a Tiger offense that ranks eighth in adjusted efficiency and 27th in three-point shooting (38.1 3P%), as well as a defense that is mercilessly stripping and blocking opposing players left and right (top-5 in steal and block percentage).
Auburn’s field goal defense (both inside and outside the arc) is shaky and their defensive rebounding ranks 330th in the country, two causes for concern that could make them susceptible to a first-round upset or eventual demise to a team that’s capable of capitalizing on said weaknesses. Auburn has a great shot at beating Kansas if the two were to meet in the second round, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Vegas sets a spread favoring the Tigers despite being the lesser seed. If the Tigers and Tar Heels meet in Kansas City, the NCAA would be getting a peak matchup with two of the nation’s fastest teams that love to score quickly on the break.
What could potentially be one of the highest-scoring affairs of this year’s Tournament, a Sweet 16 duel would be a delight for fans with no rooting interest and an absolute nightmare for Tiger and Tar Heel fans alike who would be enduring what likely would be a back-and-forth nail-biter. This game could go either way.
New Mexico State
March Madness columns and blogposts everywhere are dubbing the Aggies as one of the likely teams to pull off the yearly 12-5 upset and for good reason. New Mexico State has run off a 19-game winning streak since Jan. 10, obliterating the mid-majors that dared to come in their way between a dull regular season and an exciting postseason berth. With one of the deepest team in the country (nine players averaging 14.9 minutes or more with none playing more than 26 minutes nightly) and one of the most efficient two-point scoring offenses in the country (56.6 2P%, ninth nationally), it’s understandable to view the Aggies as a team capable of upsetting whoever is in their path this postseason.
But there is reason for pause. Going 30-4 is no meager accomplishment, but losing the slate’s only two scheduled games against Tournament teams (Saint Mary’s, Kansas) isn’t a good sign. It’ll be interesting to see how New Mexico State fairs against teams significantly larger than they are (the Aggies have no player in the rotation taller than 6-foot-9, and their average player height ranks 332nd nationally). Despite being so small, the team hauls in rebounds with the best of them, ranking eighth in offensive rebounding percentage and fourth in defensive rebounding percentage. Something’s gotta give sooner or later.
Scraping past Auburn, like many potential upsets in the region, shouldn’t be dismissed due to the Aggies’ streak and the history behind 12-5 upsets. Auburn is playing its best basketball at the perfect time too, but if the Aggies get matched up against a Tar Heel group with three starters standing 6-foot-8 or taller, that would be the ultimate test regarding their rebounding prowess up to this point.