Oregon Basketball: 3 keys to beat Virginia in the Sweet 16

3. Be hotter from deep.

Both teams will struggle to score inside. Virginia will have to reckon with an Oregon defense that swarms opponents inside. It’s led by Kenny Wooten, who ranks eighth in block rate and has accrued 11 blocks in two tournament games. Oregon will face a Virginia defense that’s designed to prevent opponents from getting easy looks at the basket and that is led by a host of superb shot-blockers including Mamadi Diakite, who ranks 28th in block rate. De’Andre Hunter was the ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year partly because of his ability to stop dribble penetration with his quick feet and lateral quickness.

For the priority that they place on interior defense, Virginia and Oregon regularly allow open looks from behind the arc. The Ducks have advanced so far partly because of how well they are shooting. They made seven threes against Wisconsin and 13 against UC Irvine. They are 20-for-40 from three in both games combined.

Teams do well against Virginia by spacing out its defenders and knocking down open and contested threes. Two examples are UMBC last year, which went 12-for-24 from three, and Duke, which went 13-for-21 from three and beat Virginia 81-71 in Charlottesville. In both games, Virginia allowed a season-high in points because of its helplessness against hot shooters.

As a team, Oregon did not shoot well overall during the regular season. But in each of its last three games, Oregon has converted over 40% of its three-point opportunities. Louis King, in particular, has been hot, going 7-for-10 from three in Oregon’s past two games combined.

Especially if Oregon maintains its shooting form, Virginia will really need its top shooter Kyle Guy to get going. In Guy’s NCAA Tournament career, he is combined 2-for-21 from behind the arc. This year, he is 1-for-15 in two games combined. Guy shot 46% from three during the regular season while attempting by far more threes than any of his teammates, so the offense takes a considerable hit without his production.

To sum up, if Oregon can limit Virginia to the high 50’s by applying consistent ball pressure, get some degree of transition game going, and outperform Virginia from behind the arc, then it can perpetuate Virginia’s recently historic misery in March and advance to its second Elite Eight in three years.