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NCAA Tournament 2019: UNC, Michigan and LSU most likely to fall in Sweet 16

By Eddie Herz

COLUMBUS, OHIO - MARCH 24: Head coach Roy Williams of the North Carolina Tar Heels speaks with Nassir Little #5 during their game against the Tennessee Volunteers in the Second Round of the NCAA Basketball Tournament at Nationwide Arena on March 24, 2019 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
COLUMBUS, OHIO - MARCH 24: Head coach Roy Williams of the North Carolina Tar Heels speaks with Nassir Little #5 during their game against the Tennessee Volunteers in the Second Round of the NCAA Basketball Tournament at Nationwide Arena on March 24, 2019 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /
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JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – MARCH 23: Interim head coach Tony Benford of the LSU Tigers talks with players as they take on the Maryland Terrapins during the second half of the game in the second round of the 2019 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Vystar Memorial Arena on March 23, 2019 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – MARCH 23: Interim head coach Tony Benford of the LSU Tigers talks with players as they take on the Maryland Terrapins during the second half of the game in the second round of the 2019 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Vystar Memorial Arena on March 23, 2019 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /

LSU Tigers

Given that each three seed plays a two seed, it makes sense how none are favored to survive the Sweet 16. The largest spread of all the 3-2 games is six points between LSU and Michigan State. I believe Vegas got that one right.

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if every three seed lost, nor if all four came away victorious. Although, the third seed I’m most reluctant to count on is LSU.

The whole Tom Izzo-Aaron Henry debacle surely was alarming. A head coach losing control of his emotions and erupting on a freshman amid a potentially disastrous loss is probably the worst thing to see from a two seed in the first round besides actually losing.

The Spartans didn’t lose though. The goal is obviously to breeze past the first round if you have a high seed. But a win is a win in the tournament. MSU survived and appropriately responded with a big win over Minnesota. Izzo is one of the best postseason coaches in college basketball history, and it is clear his veteran group has regained focus.

I don’t see MSU shooting itself in the foot or inducing many self-inflicted wounds against the Tigers. And when the Spartans don’t beat themselves, it is nearly impossible to beat them.

LSU had its hands full with Maryland in the Round of 32, a program MSU defeated with ease earlier this season. The Tigers also struggled to fend off Yale and most likely wouldn’t have won if the Bulldogs weren’t so cold from deep.

I know, like I just said, it’s March: a win is a win. But it says something how LSU hasn’t looked great yet in the tourney. When dealing with a force like the Spartans, it is crucial to have already garnered some momentum and rhythm heading into the game. As Izzo’s teams normally do in March, MSU will play better and better as the tournament progresses. It’s pretty difficult for me to bank on LSU scraping by with another close win against an MSU bunch that is beginning to hit its stride following a slight bump in the road.

Next. X-factors from each Sweet 16 team. dark

The Tigers’ lethal trio of guards, as well as Naz Reid, bring a high-powered offense to the table. Scoring more than 80 points per game would be much more difficult for LSU if it played in a defensive-oriented conference such as the Big Ten though. The Tigers’ offense will have more trouble than usual against the Spartans’ solid defense.

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