Virginia Basketball: Keys to taking down Auburn in the Final Four

1. Dictate the pace of the game early.

Virginia basketball is one of the most pace-oriented teams in the country. Over the course of the entire season, the Cavaliers have operated at the slowest pace of any team nationally while averaging under 60 total possessions per game. In addition to slowing down their opponents with their physical pack-line defense, this team also does a tremendous job methodically working through each possession to find the best possible shot attempt. To put it simply, Virginia is a very deliberate team that often dictates the tempo of matchups.

Auburn, on the other hand, loves to speed the game up on the offensive end of the floor. The Tigers might rank near the middle of the country in overall adjusted tempo but the average length of one of their offensive possessions is in the top-75 for pace. Head coach Bruce Pearl’s team loves to run in transition, get into their sets quickly, and launch trifectas behind the sensational backcourt duo of Jared Harper and Bryce Brown. With that said, though, teams that play with pace can really struggle when they are forced to slow down.

In my opinion, controlling the tempo in this matchup will start on the offensive end of the floor for Virginia. This is due to the fact that Auburn is ranked No. 1 – best in the country – in defensive turnover rate. The Tigers have forced turnovers on nearly one-fourth (24.9%) of their opponent’s possessions to this point in the year and their opportunistic defense often leads to transition baskets. Additionally, Auburn’s ability to force turnovers has been strongly correlated to their successes this season. The Tigers are 27-2 when forcing 14+ turnovers and just 3-7 in all other games.

Thankfully, UVA is one of the better teams in the country with regards to taking care of each possession; they commit turnovers at the 12th-lowest rate nationally. And while deliberate offenses are typically more careful with the ball, it is important to note that this pace-adjusted statistic still shows the cautious nature of the Cavaliers on offense. With the emergence of Kihei Clark on both ends of the floor and Jerome’s size as a guard, Coach Bennett has the luxury of trotting out three trustworthy ballhandlers (Guy is the third) whenever he feels the need. But even though taking care of the ball is a strength of UVA, it would be a mistake to overlook Auburn’s opportunistic scheme that often results in turnovers.

To summarize, as long as Virginia basketball sticks to its normal gameplan of slowing the game down on both ends of the floor and avoiding turnovers, I think that it will be hard for Auburn to pull off the upset. Certainly not impossible, though…