Virginia Basketball: Keys to taking down Texas Tech in title game

3. Win the possession battle.

This is going to be a low-scoring, defensive-minded game. There is seemingly no doubt about that. Virginia and Texas Tech both like to dictate the pace of their matchups and slow the game down. Statistically, both squads rank in the bottom-third of the nation with regards to offensive tempo and also do a nice job forcing their opponents into long possessions defensively. It is for this reason that arguably the most important key to this game for both teams will be winning the possession battle. This includes limiting turnovers and rebounding at a high rate to ensure more scoring opportunities than the opposition.

Starting with the turnover battle, Virginia is one of the best teams in the country with regards to taking care of the ball. For the year, the Cavaliers rank 11th nationally in offensive turnover rate as they only give up the ball on 14.7% of possessions. On the flip side, though, Texas Tech’s defense is outstanding at luring their opponents into poor decisions. The Red Raiders are, funnily enough, 11th nationally in defensive turnover rate as they force mistakes at a 23.0% rate. On the other end of the court, Texas Tech turns the ball over more often (17.9% off. TOr – 138th) but Virginia is also not all that active in playing the passing lanes, either (17.6% def. TOr – 235th).

With regards to winning the battle underneath, Virginia has the advantage both in offensive and defensive rebounding rates. The Cavaliers are one of the most disciplined teams in the nation and they always focus on finding a body to box out on the glass. Even though Texas Tech might seem to have the defensive advantage in the paint due to their insane defense inside the arc, Virginia might be the one that pulls down the majority of the missed shots. And if the Cavaliers are able to build up more possessions than the Red Raiders, they will likely walk away victorious.

In the end, this has the makings of one of the best National Championship games in some time. There might not be a ton of offense in that game but that speaks more volumes about each team’s defense. These two teams are absolutely tremendous on the defensive end of the floor and the chess match on the sidelines of Chris Beard (TTU) vs. Tony Bennett (UVA) will be incredible to follow. In the end, though, I think that the Cavaliers will have the strong gameplan needed to score with enough consistency to beat the Red Raiders.

Final Prediction: Virginia Cavaliers – 64, Texas Tech Red Raiders – 62.