Texas Tech Basketball: NBA Draft profile on wing initiator Jarrett Culver

Needs Improvement: Efficiency, Shot Mechanics

The end of the NCAA men’s basketball season left a bad taste in onlookers’ mouths when it came to Jarrett Culver’s offensive impact after getting hounded and tortured throughout the Championship game by fellow 2019 draft class member De’Andre Hunter, going a paltry 5-of-22 from the field (27.7%) and 0-of-6 from downtown. And, to pile on, he only went an equally unpleasant 23-of-67 from the field (34.3%) in his previous four NCAA Tournament appearances, albeit against a murderer’s row of merciless defenses which ranked 31st, second, 12th, and ninth according to KenPom, and Virginia was clearly no slouch, ranking fifth in the nation.

As the Red Raiders’ offensive cog and best (and, really, only) shot creator and reliable facilitator, his offensive load was quite high. He manned an outrageous 32.2 usage rate this year (the exact same as Duke’s RJ Barrett!), as he was the only player capable of getting shots on his own, which ultimately bled into his efficiency. Opposing defenses schemed to stop him repeatedly, making each and every game (some more/less than others) a battle for Culver.

Going up against perhaps the two best on-ball defenders in the nation in Charles Matthews (Michigan) and De’Andre Hunter (Virginia) is some pretty rough luck. They hounded him for each and every second that they were on the floor matched up with him, and their physicality and surgical technique evidently bothered Culver.

Although it’s not a major concern, Culver’s athleticism is also a limiting factor with his offensive production — he’s strong and smooth, but the burst on his first step isn’t that daunting, nor is his vertical pop when finishing at the wrack, so scoring (mid-post, fadeaways, drives) in traffic can be a bit difficult at times. Granted, he was generally fine at both getting (39.7% of his shots, only 23.8% of which are assisted on) to and finishing at (67.1 FG%) the rim as a sophomore.

For what it’s worth, his subpar shooting performances to end the year (31.5 percent shooting over his last five games despite shooting 48.9 percent in the previous 33 games) did come against top-shelf defenses, but his efficiency was still a bit of an issue (not a major one, but still an issue) throughout the season, specifically as a jump shooter. Jarrett Culver only ranked in the 34th percentile on shots off the catch, hitting only 31.6 percent of his field goal attempts according to Synergy Sports (equal to 0.908 PPP). He wasn’t much better shooting off the dribble, either, hitting 33.1 percent of his shots, ranking in the 50th percentile (0.779 PPP).

His efficiency needs to improve somewhat, but that’s not much of a concern — it really seems to be tied to his role and usage rate, and he projects to be more of a secondary initiator on the wing in the NBA instead of the offensive engine that he was for Texas Tech. His last few games as a sophomore were rough, to be sure, but onlookers shouldn’t believe them to be truly indicative of who he is as a player or scorer.

As a freshman playing behind superior talent that had bigger roles than he did (Culver had a much more reasonable 22.1 usage rate), Culver experienced far better numbers as an off-ball shooter, drilling 38.2 percent of his threes (55-of-144, good volume) and 42.6 percent of his shots off the catch, ranking in the 88th percentile per Synergy (1.278 PPP), significantly higher than his performance this year. Playing as a secondary option in the NBA should help, both for the sake of having a lesser load and for having less pressure from opposing defenses.

Yet, his shot still needs work.

Although the team he plays for will largely determine his role and usage, only he can determine how he shoots it. Currently, his form is a work in progress — he has a noticeable hitch at the top, as he’s a bit left-eye dominant (i.e., he brings the ball up from his left side) and flairs his elbow to a significant degree. The angle and height of his release can vary at times, too, resulting in inconsistent misses, especially as a pull-up shooter off-movement. His pickup/gather is a bit slow and awkward, which increases the level of difficulty on his shots (which were already difficult as is considering the attention from opposing defenses). He’ll need to tidy that up in order to have a real chance at scoring off the dribble at the next level. Regarding his pure mechanics, though, he’s made some quick alterations in an attempt at making them cleaner.

As you can see here, as a freshman, Culver would bring the ball up from his left with a significant flair, pausing slightly at the top by using a painfully segmented two-motion swing. It wasn’t pretty, yet the touch was enough to make them fall:

As a sophomore, the form is considerably different, far more smoother as he brings it up from the middle of his body. He still twitches/snaps his elbow upon the release, and the hitch isn’t entirely gone, but the improvement is notable:

But it can still look a bit clunky at times when shooting off the dribble, even if the results are positive:

Shooting is perhaps his biggest swing skill, one that separates him from being a solid rotation player and low-level starter from a potentially borderline all-star caliber contributor. Adding a viable jumper makes his game more dynamic and far more valuable to whichever team selects him on draft night. He’s so good at everything else that a legit jumper — which, for what it’s worth, he’s fine right now, but needs improvement — and legit range on his jumper would simply elevate him to another level as a prospect.