UNC Basketball: Breaking down Tar Heels’ 2019-20 rotation

Small Forward

Minutes Breakdown: Justin Pierce (20), Brandon Robinson (10), Leaky Black (10) 

As has been mentioned in-depth previously, the addition of William & Mary graduate transfer Justin Pierce is no small acquisition by the Tar Heels, who were in dire need for another wing addition for a roster that, at the time, sported essentially nothing but guards 6-foot-4 and shorter and bigs 6-foot-9 and taller, with only the wiry Leaky Black standing somewhere in-between (6-foot-7).

Pierce, who’s coming off a year in which he was named Third Team All-CAA for the second year in a row, offers offensive versatility due to above-average passing at his position as well as a credible (if inconsistent) outside jumper and the size to compete as a ‘3’ and sparingly as a ‘4’, seen in his placement as the Tribe’s starting power forward.

Given the contested pursuit of the Tribe’s best wing, with both Michigan and Notre Dame fighting for his services, it seems as if a starting gig was promised by every university in the hunt — UNC is likely no different, hence Pierce’s position as the team’s starting small forward. Although Brandon Robinson has improved steadily as a shooter, playmaker, and defender, it’s hard to see Roy Williams recruiting one of the nation’s top grad transfers only to stick him on the bench.

Thus, Robinson will split heavy minutes backing up both Pierce and Christian Keeling, playing somewhere in the realm of 20 minutes a night as North Carolina’s primary wing reserve. (It’s also hard to envision Williams starting three short guards — Cole Anthony at 6-foot-3, Keeling at 6-foot-4, and Robinson at 6-foot-4 — together considering how much size they’d be giving up on the defensive end. That may be a nonstarter for him, although all three players could see the court together in spurts throughout the season.)

Rising sophomore Leaky Black could certainly benefit from a larger role, especially after missing significant time as a freshman after a lingering ankle sprain, and his versatility as (essentially) a point-forward and defensive Swiss Army knife is certainly valuable to the roster’s success, but there is simply far too much older talent between him and a large minutes share. A larger role will likely be withheld until his junior season next year whenever UNC is set to lose several players on the wing.

+ given Pierce’s track record as a starting-caliber player — albeit in a lesser conference — I presume that he’ll secure the starting role as the offseason progresses, with Roy ultimately opting to continue using Brandon Robinson as a super-sixth man off the bench

— need to note that, according to Mike Gribanov of The Stepien, Pierce’s defensive capabilities may not meet the standards of the typical ACC starting forward, which is admittedly concerning.