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NCAA Basketball: 5 best value bets for winning 2019-20 national title

By Zach Stearman

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - APRIL 08: The Virginia Cavaliers celebrate with the trophy after their 85-77 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the 2019 NCAA men's Final Four National Championship game at U.S. Bank Stadium on April 08, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - APRIL 08: The Virginia Cavaliers celebrate with the trophy after their 85-77 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the 2019 NCAA men's Final Four National Championship game at U.S. Bank Stadium on April 08, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
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INDIANAPOLIS, IN – MARCH 17: Head coach John Brannen of the Northern Kentucky Norse reacts during the game against the Kentucky Wildcats in the first round of the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on March 17, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, IN – MARCH 17: Head coach John Brannen of the Northern Kentucky Norse reacts during the game against the Kentucky Wildcats in the first round of the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on March 17, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images) /

Bonus: Cincinnati Bearcats (+6600)

If you want a true long shot and Baylor is not your style, take a look at the Bearcats. Nearly every team with odds this long will have a negative expected value on future bets, but Cincinnati is the exception. The +6600 odds are tied for 27th best per Bovada, but I have them at #13 in my preseason ratings. While the odds of Cincinnati cutting down the nets are still very slim at 1.6%, the long odds make it a reasonable gamble.
It is always difficult to predict how a team will perform after a coaching change, but John Brannen should not be discounted due to his relative inexperience. He was very successful at Northern Kentucky, turning a new Division I program into arguably the best team in the Horizon League.

Cincinnati had a good season last season, finishing second in the AAC and upsetting Houston in the AAC tournament. They suffered a disappointing opening round loss in the NCAA Tournament, but hopefully the experience will benefit them this season. They return their top three scorers, including Jarron Cumberland who won AAC Player of the Year honors last season. Cumberland shouldered too much of the offensive load for the Bearcats at times last season, but Top-50 shooting guard Zach Harvey should be another weapon to add to the returning roster.

When approaching a bet on a team like Cincinnati, you should be cautious due to the low chance of the bet cashing. However, with 66-1 odds, the risk might be worth the reward. Even a very small bet can lead to a big pay-day down the line if things work out. If you do put a few bucks on the Bearcats, maybe your ticket will be the one trending online if they end up cutting down the nets in April.

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