NCAA Basketball: A look back on season one of the NET rankings
Lack of major negative effects on NCAA Tournament field
The argument for inflation was that these teams spent the non-conference season registering blowout victories and, while the NET caps its “scoring margin” component at ten points, the offensive and defensive efficiency measures will still reflect the full force of a 40-point drubbing.
North Carolina State was perhaps the best example of a team in this mold from last season. The Wolfpack piled up wins of 50, 46, 51, 28, 33, 27, and 33 points in the non-conference slate. Those wins, though, all came against teams who finished the season ranked 279th or lower in the NET, including three of the bottom ten teams in the nation. But despite a middling performance in the ACC that saw NC State finish 9-9 and 8th in the league, the Wolfpack still managed to finish the season ranked 36th in the NET. It’s notable that they did not make the NCAA Tournament even with their gaudy ranking.
The Wolfpack’s omission from the field of 68 was something of a relief to many analysts and bracketologists, as there was some uncertainty over just how important the NET would be in the NCAA Tournament selection process. In fact, even though NC State had such a good NET ranking, they were not even among the First Four Out.
It bears mention that the NET was by no means the only rankings system that was inflating NC State’s résumé. Kevin Keatts’ team finished 29th in ESPN’s BPI rating, 32nd in Sagarin’s system, 33rd in ESPN’s Strength of Resume rating, and 41st in Pomeroy’s rankings. Only the Kevin Pauga Index was unequivocally out on NC State, ranking them 66th and projecting that they would be squarely among the NIT field. The inflated rankings are less an indictment of the NET itself and more of a byproduct on ratings systems that rely heavily on efficiency margins.
However, at the end of the day, instead of NC State or other teams with “inflated” NET rankings, it was Belmont (#47 in the NET on Selection Sunday), Temple (#56), Arizona State (#63), and St. John’s (#73) who were chosen to compete in the First Four round of the tournament. The lowest-ranked team to receive an at-large bid, the Red Storm posted a 10-10 record in Quadrant 1 and 2 games. The Wolfpack, despite their shiny #33 ranking, fared 8-9 in such games. In fact, all four of the selected teams were above .500 in such games, whereas NC State and the First Four Out (UNCG, Alabama, TCU, and Indiana) were all below that threshold.
NC State wasn't even in the first four out. So NET mattered to some extent but obviously wasn't the be-all, end-all. St. John's, with a NET rank of 73, in while NC State, NET rank 33, out.
— Billy “Arm Wrestled Travis Bagent” Riccette (@Billy_Riccette) March 17, 2019
While the NET may not be the be-all-end-all metric by which teams are selected, it looks as though it may be utilized obliquely an important tiebreaker. But we need more data before conclusions like that can be made with any confidence. So, what are the effects of the NET that we can expect to see as we head into 2020?