Oregon State Basketball: 2019-20 season preview for Beavers

Will Oregon State punch a ticket in 2020?

The Beavers postseason accomplishments over the past three decades have been, to put it nicely, meager. An NIT berth in 2004 marked the school’s first late-March activity since the Gary Payton years. The team’s 2008 triumph in the CBI over UTEP was an uplifting experience for the team and for the fans, but that trophy has lost some luster now that the tournament has become much more geared toward mid-majors (though South Florida and DePaul put on a pretty good show in the CBI finals last year). Of course, the 2016 NCAA Tournament appearance is the program’s highest achievement, but they were bounced in the first round and haven’t been back since.

If the Beavers are going to get back to the Big Dance, they need to score a few big wins in the non-conference schedule. The games against Iowa State and Oklahoma provide the best chances at Quadrant 1 wins, though if Texas A&M can climb into the Top 75, that road game would qualify as well. Just as important as winning those games, however, is avoiding any bad losses. OSU should be especially leery of the UC Irvine and UCSB games, since those are at home. But a solid run through their non-conference obstacles won’t be enough on its own.

The Beavers absolutely must finish above .500 in the Pac-12 if they want any serious consideration for a bid. With the league looking like it will have a pretty hefty logjam between its top and bottom teams, every game will be a must-win for OSU. One point of difficulty will be that the Beavers’ Pac-12 schedule provides a pair of brutal stretches at either end. In early January, Oregon State travels to Utah and Colorado, comes home to play the Arizona schools, and then heads up to Seattle for a date with the Huskies.

The second stretch in the back half of February could be decisive for Oregon State’s seeding in the conference tournament – not to mention their at-large hopes. After hosting the Utes and Buffs on either side of Valentine’s Day, the Beavers hit the road for their trip down to Tucson and Tempe. Then, they stop in Eugene for the second Civil War game before coming back to Gill to finish out the regular season against Stanford and Cal.

It’s likely that any Pac-12 team with NCAA Tournament ambitions will need at least twelve wins. Even if OSU can snag five wins from the trio of WSU/Stanford/Cal, that still leaves seven victories they need from the rest of the conference. Splitting with the Mountain schools and Arizona State seems febasible. The Beavers swept both Civil War contests last year, but the Ducks will be a much different team than the last time they faced their rivals. It’s hard to see OSU grabbing more than two wins in their combined games against Washington, Arizona, and Oregon, if they get that many. Even so, that leaves two wins to get to twelve, meaning that the Beavers’ postseason hopes may rest in how they fare at home against the SoCal schools. A sweep for Oregon State may be necessary, though a split is more likely.

Final Predicted Record: 18-13 (9-9 Pac-12)

Wins: CSUN, @ Wyoming, UCSB, Grambling, vs. SJSU, Portland St., Ark.-Pine Bluff, vs. UTSA, @ Utah, Arizona St., @ Washington St., UCLA, @ Cal, Oregon, Colorado, Stanford, California – plus one win in the Pac-12 Tournament

Losses: Iowa St., vs. Oklahoma, @Texas A&M, @ Colorado, Arizona, @ Washington, USC, @ Stanford, Utah, @ Arizona, @ Arizona State, @ Oregon – plus one loss in the Pac-12 Tournament

Oregon State is a hard team to peg down, but all indications are that they will be a Top 100 team but probably not a Top 50 one. They have enough talent to roll out a 20-win season, but a tough enough schedule that falling below .500 isn’t out of the question either. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. Another winning record and a decent showing in the league for Wayne Tinkle should ensure his job security. But it probably won’t be enough to get Oregon State back to the NCAA Tournament, considering the number of dangerous teams in the league this year. The Beavs may be worthy of an NIT bid, but even that might be a stretch. Given that Tinkle has repeatedly turned down invitations to the CBI, that likely means that the Beavers will be staying home altogether after the conference tournament.

But OSU can change that fate by grabbing a couple of those Quadrant 1 wins, be it in the non-conference games or during Pac-12 play against the league’s top teams. There are a lot of good opportunities available in the list of losses above. The Beavers can’t afford to shy away from big games this season, especially during their daunting stretch near the end of the regular season. Even if the Beavs don’t get back to the Big Dance – and even if Tres Tinkle doesn’t bring home that Player of the Year trophy – fans of the team should still be able to sit back and enjoy the final season watching their beloved father-son duo.

Wayne and Tres have helped the Beavers regain respectability on the national scene after a long stretch as a laughingstock. That kind of legacy doesn’t go away quickly. Still, you can bet that the Tinkles (and their competitive spirit) and the rest of the Oregon State team won’t be resting on their laurels in 2019-20.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.