Saint Mary’s Basketball: Can the Gaels contend in the WCC?

Saint Mary’s Basketball: Can Gaels contend in WCC for 2019-20 season?

LAS VEGAS, NV - MARCH 05: Head coach Randy Bennett of the Saint Mary's Gaels looks on during a semifinal game of the West Coast Conference basketball tournament against the Brigham Young Cougars at the Orleans Arena on March 5, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Cougars won 85-72. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images) /

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HARTFORD, CONNECTICUT – MARCH 21: Jordan Ford #3 of the Saint Mary’s Gaels brings the ball up court against the Villanova Wildcats in the first half during the 2019 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament at XL Center on March 21, 2019 in Hartford, Connecticut. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Jordan Ford

An interesting dynamic has developed over the last two seasons regarding Saint Mary’s team assist percentages (measures percentage of baskets that are assisted). The Gaels have historically ranked highly in this metric (8th in 2016-17, 25th in 2015-16) but saw this plummet from 104th two seasons ago all the way to dead last (353rd) last season. Specifically, the Gales had the 7th lowest assist percentage on shots at the rim, the 5th lowest on 2-point jumpers, and the 54th lowest on 3-pointers.

Some of this trend can simply be explained by the departures of assist wizards Emmett Naar and Joe Rahon over the last two years, but there’s clearly more going on. If one is looking for more of an explanation, they need look no farther than Jordan Ford.

With Naar graduating, Ford took the reins of the Saint Mary’s offense last season. The 6-1 guard brought a much different style; while Naar averaged 9.5 points and 7.9 assists his senior season, Ford was much more of a scorer, averaging 21.1 points and 2.5 assists.

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Ford was a high-usage player that had the ball in his hands a lot, played heavy minutes and thrived as a scorer in isolation and the pick-and-roll. The senior averaged 15.3 shots per game and ranked 19th nationally in the percent of minutes played (36.9 per game). 46.6% of his shots were at the rim last season per hoop-math (made 57.6%, 12.9% assisted), while 32.6% were 3-point attempts, (made 41.2%, 47.1% assisted).

These factors help explain the vast drop-off in the team’s assist rate. This development might seem concerning on its face (assists are good, right?), but with a player as good as Ford, this isn’t necessarily the case. The Gaels still managed to post the 23rd-best offense in the nation last season, driven by Ford’s efficiency as a scorer both inside-and-out.

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From the 2009-10 to 2018-19 seasons, only five players have recorded the following statistical profile (per sports-reference): points per game >= 21.1, effective field goal percentage >= 55.7%, minutes per game >= 36.9 AND assists per game >= 2.5.

Justin Wright-Foreman – 2018-19 – Hofstra

Billy Baron – 2013-14 – Canisius

Charles Jenkins – 2010-11 – Hofstra

Tyler Harvey – 2014-15 – Eastern Washington

Tyler Harvey – 2013-14 -Eastern Washington

Jordan Ford – 2018-19 – Saint Mary’s (CA)

The Saint Mary’s offense could likely benefit from Ford distributing a bit more, but regardless, he should be one of the better guards in the nation next season (26th overall player per one ranking). He shot only 6-17 in the Gaels’ 1st round loss to Villanova last season, so he’ll surely be motivated to have a stronger tournament performance in 2020.