SEC Basketball: 3 bold predictions for 2019-20 season

1) Auburn & Tennessee struggle, end up as bubble teams

With Auburn coming off last season’s Final Four run and Tennessee making a Sweet 16, it’s easy to see why expectations remain high for both programs.

They are picked to finish 4th and 5th, respectively in the SEC, with the Tigers being ranked No. 24 in the AP preseason poll while the Volunteers are, for all intents and purposes, ranked No. 28 (they’re third among the others receiving votes).

However, those expectations are much more about what both programs have accomplished recently rather than projections for what they will accomplish this year. As such, both are in for rude awakenings in 2019-20.

Auburn lost their three best players from last year’s team in Bryce Brown, Jared Harper, and Chuma Okeke and, while they have a top 20 recruiting class coming in, don’t any anyone who is in line to replace all that production. That trio combined for over 50 percent of Auburn’s offense and were among their best defenders. Throw in the fact that the Tigers have to replace their 4th leading scorer, Samir Doughty, as well, and there’s a lot this group has to replace – more than most seem to realize.

There’s also the forgotten fact that Auburn wasn’t great until February last year, when that star trio took their game to another level (funny how a Final Four run can mask some things). Remember that 80-53 loss to Kentucky? The Tigers were 18-9 overall, 7-7 in the SEC, and were being discussed as a bubble team even with Brown, Harper, and Okeke. Without them, Auburn is going to look more like that version of themselves rather than the one that won 12 straight games in March.

Likewise, Tennessee is losing their three most important players in Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Jordan Bone. They combined for nearly 60 percent of Tennessee’s offense, and the Vols had a much shorter rotation than Auburn. Rick Barnes only returns four players that saw consistent playing time a year ago and have one newcomer – five-star prospect Josiah-Jordan James – that is expected to make a significant immediate impact. They’re going to have to deal with a very short bench along with having to find new go-to guys.

Along with all the on-court production, the Vols are also losing the incredible leadership that trio provided that won’t be easily replaced. I think that will have as much of an impact as anything.

Simply put, both Auburn and Tennessee are losing very significant pieces from great teams. That’s hard to replace no matter what, yet these two don’t appear to be equipped to handle the transition.