Pac-12 Basketball: 3 bold predictions for 2019-20 season

2) Colorado finishes outside the top four

Colorado is a trendy pick in Pac-12 because they return all their major pieces from last year’s 23-win team. In fact, in the conference’s preseason media poll, the Buffaloes were picked second (by a measly three points) and had the same number of first-place votes as Oregon, who claimed the top spot.

I agree that Colorado will be a quality team but, at this point, it feels like so many people have jumped on the “Colorado is underrated” train that the Buffs have actually become overrated.

Tad Boyle’s squad made their mark on the defensive end last season and ranked in the top 40 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. That’s good – but that number was also inflated by how bad the Pac-12 was last year. In their 11 non-conference games, opponents scored at least 70 points eight times, which is the same amount of times that occurred during their 18 conference games. With the conference set to be much stronger in 2019-20 (more on that next), Colorado’s defense may take a step back.

However, the biggest reason I think they’ll struggle is their offense. For as good of an all-around player as McKinley Wright is, and as good of a rebounder as Tyler Bey is, the Buffs lack a legitimate go-to scoring threat. Those two were the only players who averaged double figures last year, and neither reached a 14.0 ppg average.

Those offensive struggles (131st in efficiency) can be traced back to a lack of three-point shooting and turnovers. Those turnovers numbers should improve as this group has another year of experience (I’m particularly hopeful for Wright, who turned it over nearly one out of every four possessions), but the shooting likely won’t. Colorado ranked 272nd in the country in three-point shooting a year ago, 274th in three-pointers attempted and lost the only player on their team (Namon Wright) who shot better than 36.5 percent from deep.

Don’t forget, Colorado lost to San Diego, Indiana State, Hawaii, and Washington State last season because of these offensive struggles.

The Buffaloes will still be a solid team that will make the NCAA Tournament, yet their flaws – and ceiling – will become much more visible this year when they face the talented teams waiting for them in conference play.