Florida Basketball: Keys to success against Florida State in 2019-20

3. Dominate the turnover battle.

Turnovers are a crucial part of every college basketball game. It is impossible to play “error-free” and there are plenty of teams across the nation that excel at forcing mistakes. Florida State is definitely one of those teams as they have finished in the top-150 nationally in defensive turnover rate in 15 of 17 years that Leonard Hamilton has roamed the sidelines as the head coach. He does a superb job teaching defensive principles and always deploys a long and athletic rotation capable of intercepting passing lanes.

Florida is easily the more talented team in this matchup, in my opinion. Turnovers and offensive rebounds, though, could swing the scoreboard in favor of the Seminoles if the Gators are not circumspect. Florida will need to treat each possession with care and that will be up to their underclassman backcourt trio to manage. Nembhard, Noah Locke, and Tre Mann are all exceptional ball-handlers that exude poise well beyond their years but they will also be pushed by FSU’s veteran backcourt of Mann and Forrest in this matchup.

Florida ranked 134th in offensive turnover rate last season with Nembhard/Locke running the offense as only freshmen, so they are definitely strong in this department. Still, taking care of the ball against Florida State is no easy task.

It is also important to mention, though, that the Gators have a propensity for forcing mistakes with their defense as well. Thanks to Coach White’s excellent scheming and roster construction, this team can be absolutely nightmarish to pass against. Florida ranked 17th in the nation in defensive turnover rate last season and then proceeded to add the likes of Tre Mann and five-star defensive phenom Scottie Lewis to the wing. They should be even better in that category this season.

Florida State, on the other side, ranked just 210th in offensive turnover rate last season as they are a little free with the ball on occasion.

Statistics definitely give Florida the edge in the turnover department as they are better both with regards to forcing mistakes as well as valuing each possession. It is also worth mentioning that the Gators will have the home crowd on their side as well. Florida State’s backcourt, though, brings a bit more experience to the table and that could play a factor.

Either way, the winner of the turnover battle should be in a good position to walk out of the swampland victorious.

In the end, I think that the Gators will receive big-time contributions from their two elite freshmen in Scottie Lewis and Tre Mann while proving they belong in the nation’s top-tier of national title contenders. It is hard to imagine that Florida State will start 0-2 this season, but that will likely be the case.

Monitoring the pace of this game will be extremely intriguing considering both programs slowed things down last season compared to their usual standards. Watch Andrew Nembhard early and often to see how the Gators will look to manage the tempo at home.

Final Prediction: Florida Gators – 71, Florida State Seminoles – 63.