Butler Basketball: Keys to success against Ole Miss on the road
Opponent Intel: Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss will be coming into this game hungry for a victory. Not only have the Rebels lost two of their last three games but they are also fresh off an embarrassing defeat. While competing in the NIT Tip-Off Tournament, Ole Miss finished the non-conference event with a 41-point loss to Oklahoma State. It was one of the worst all-around performances by a high-major team so far this season as they were held to dreadful shooting numbers (1-for-20 from three) and just 0.49 PPP as they scored 37 total points. As a result, it is fair to say that the Rebels will be ready to prove themselves better than that performance by coming out strong at home against Butler in this one.
The Rebels, despite the poor performance in their tournament finale last week, are a talented group capable of competing for an NCAA Tournament bid this season. Head coach Kermit Davis is one of the more well-respected leaders in the country considering his run at Middle Tennessee and that has largely translated into success in Oxford as well. Through the early stages of this season, the Rebels hold a 5-2 record that includes four sub-200 wins, a come-from-behind victory over Penn State, and a pair of losses to fringe top-25 teams in Memphis and Oklahoma State. It hasn’t been a perfect start for the squad but it hasn’t been terrible either. The Rebels currently sit at No. 65 in KenPom.
It is also important to mention that this meeting with Butler will be the last true test of 2019 for Ole Miss. Their following four games will all come against teams ranked outside of the KenPom top-250 before facing Wichita State on Jan. 4 to end non-conference play. Considering this remaining schedule, the Rebels have a legitimate shot at entering SEC play with only 2-3 total losses and that quest begins against Butler.
With regard to individual contributors, Ole Miss heavily relies on its backcourt to carry the way. Devontae Shuler and Breein Tyree, the two starters, are both more than capable of posting high-scoring outings thanks to their perimeter shooting. Tyree, most notably, averaged 17.9 points per game last season. The senior has struggled a bit to begin this season at just 15.1 points per game, but that is essentially due to his poor shooting from three (20.5%) compared to his usual standard (37.5% last year).
His junior backcourt counterpart, Shuler, has also experienced a minor dip in scoring (10.3 -> 9.4) while his efficiency has plummeted to below 40% shooting from the field. He is even down to just 56.3% from free-throw line. On the whole, both Tyree and Shuler have underachieved a bit to begin this season but could be on the verge of breaking out of their slumps. Bryce Williams (5.6 pts) comes off the bench in the backcourt.
Moving to the wings, Blake Hinson is the player to watch. A dynamic 6-foot-7 scorer with a quick trigger from beyond the arc, he has the potential to be a matchup nightmare. The sophomore is averaging 12.3 points and 5.0 rebounds per contest in his first three games while shooting 7-for-17 from three. Additionally, though, freshman Austin Crowley is seeing minutes on the wing (as well as at the point) thanks to his 3-point shooting. He is 6-for-13 from deep in seven contests and will play a more pronounced role moving forward with Luis Rodriguez out with injury. The Rebels might also turn to freshman Antavion Collum to make up for that injury as well.
In the frontcourt, Ole Miss relies on three players to supply the main bulk of the minutes. KJ Buffen, a 6-foot-7 sophomore forward, is the most notable of these as a strong interior presence. He is averaging 12.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.1 steals per game thus far this season as one of the Rebels’ most important contributors. Alongside him, Khadim Sy mans the “5” spot. He is posting 6.6 points and 4.6 rebounds per game at 6-foot-10. Both players have the ability to occasionally step out for 3-point jumpers but not at high volume. The frontcourt is then rounded out by a 6-foot-9 freshman in Sammy Hunter, who is playing 16.7 minutes per game as a filler big.
On the whole, Ole Miss lacks a deep frontcourt and that is a concern considering how foul-prone all three players are: Buffen (4.5 fouls called per 40), Sy (7.2 FC/40), Hunter (5.1 FC/40). At least two of those players need to stay out of foul trouble in order for the Rebels to stay competitive on the glass against high-major opposition.
From a statistical profile standpoint, Ole Miss likes to push the pace. They rank 114th in the nation in adjusted tempo as they rank 267th in turnover rate and 53rd in turnover rate forced. Those statistics lead to a transition-heavy playing style on both ends of the floor and shortened possessions. That style also contributors to the Rebels’ high rates FTAr’s forced and given up.
When playing in the halfcourt, Ole Miss has struggled offensively from 3-point range so far this season (30.9%) but they do a great job moving the ball. Despite not boasting a true primary playmaker, the Rebels are recording assists on 60.2% of all made field goals. Tyree is the one taking the most shots but everyone is active in the offense. On the defensive end, they have closed out on shooters well defensively (24.7 3P% surrendered).
Ole Miss ranks 91st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 53rd on defense. It is also reasonable to assume that the former number does not tell the whole truth as it could be largely swayed by their dismal performance against Oklahoma State.
Now, let’s dive into three potential keys to success for Butler against Ole Miss.